Langley

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5577	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.617	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
98.217	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
97.927	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
95.282	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
95.087	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
95.086	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
94.473	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
94.368	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
92.334	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
92.166	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
91.377	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
90.531	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
90.340	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
90.182	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
90.160	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
89.643	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
89.547	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
89.047	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
88.759	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
88.718	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
88.348	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
87.910	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
87.854	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
86.175	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
84.717	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
84.550	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
83.548	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
83.098	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
82.997	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
82.932	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
82.810	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
82.610	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
82.295	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
79.398	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
79.026	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
78.841	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
77.681	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia?	Multiple Choice
76.737	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
74.814	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
74.790	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
74.343	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
73.983	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
71.974	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
71.826	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
71.651	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
68.937	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.525	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
68.490	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
68.259	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
67.552	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
66.612	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania?	Multiple Choice
66.604	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
66.154	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
64.571	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.251	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
63.693	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
63.281	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
63.222	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
63.071	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
63.025	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
62.902	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
62.374	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
60.144	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
59.146	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
57.687	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
56.831	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.227	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
55.428	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
54.542	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
54.289	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
52.972	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
52.964	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
52.715	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
52.028	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
49.632	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
49.081	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
48.947	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
48.139	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
48.053	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
48.053	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona)	Binary
47.283	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
46.317	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
46.147	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
45.795	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
45.643	Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?	Binary
45.494	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
45.155	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
44.730	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
44.571	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
44.391	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
44.024	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
43.673	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas)	Binary
43.590	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
43.573	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey)	Binary
43.423	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
43.411	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri)	Binary
43.181	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
43.145	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
42.846	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
39.399	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana?	Multiple Choice
39.397	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
39.346	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
37.581	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
37.302	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka?	Multiple Choice
36.989	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
35.995	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
34.664	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.365	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
33.939	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
33.816	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
33.450	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
30.674	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
30.111	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
30.008	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
29.910	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
29.432	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
27.223	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
26.073	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
25.591	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
23.131	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
22.506	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
21.812	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
20.951	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
20.577	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
18.447	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
18.429	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
18.414	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
17.055	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
16.832	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
15.019	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan)	Binary
14.336	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
13.558	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
13.262	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
12.847	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
12.519	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
10.849	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
10.161	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
10.137	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
9.705	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
8.969	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
8.569	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I))	Binary
8.517	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
8.165	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
5.379	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
4.481	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
3.553	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
2.709	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
0.513	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-0.358	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.852	[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?	Binary
-2.383	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.330	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-5.197	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
-6.417	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
-11.299	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
-12.866	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-14.392	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-14.807	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
-17.445	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-19.787	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
-20.643	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-21.778	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
-22.875	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-22.895	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-24.639	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
-25.246	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-26.084	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-28.411	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-32.841	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland?	Multiple Choice
-35.331	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
-35.459	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
-37.896	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
-42.646	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-46.755	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-50.781	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-52.723	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-54.496	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-54.563	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-57.648	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
-62.039	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-62.807	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-64.321	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-66.711	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-72.006	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-77.803	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-90.180	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-91.759	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
-97.511	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-99.397	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-108.811	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-124.583	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-129.139	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-134.049	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-147.294	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary