TheAGI

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3914	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.263	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
97.700	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
97.654	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
97.654	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
97.654	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
97.406	Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case?	Binary
97.338	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
97.282	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
97.282	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
93.250	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
91.164	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
90.974	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
90.258	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
89.269	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
88.354	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
88.250	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
87.808	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
87.530	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
86.479	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
86.201	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
85.905	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
85.759	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
84.085	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
84.029	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
83.581	Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025)	Binary
82.206	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
80.834	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
80.816	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
79.825	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
78.890	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
78.890	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
78.890	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
78.890	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
76.529	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
76.175	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
75.760	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
74.849	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
74.311	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
74.311	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
74.311	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
74.121	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
73.825	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
72.856	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
72.439	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
71.992	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
71.700	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
71.256	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
71.116	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
70.597	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
69.999	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
67.930	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
67.742	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
67.578	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania?	Multiple Choice
67.236	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
66.988	Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?	Binary
64.162	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
63.496	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
63.301	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
63.294	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
63.220	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
63.024	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
62.905	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
62.530	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
62.432	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
62.365	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
61.922	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
61.906	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
60.107	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
58.998	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
56.585	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
56.024	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
55.772	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
55.632	What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
55.623	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
55.232	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
55.165	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
54.297	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
53.823	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
52.804	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
51.978	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
51.130	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
50.851	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
50.636	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
50.128	What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024?	Continuous
49.224	Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025)	Binary
48.973	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
48.914	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
48.254	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
48.063	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
47.838	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
47.778	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
47.688	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
47.553	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
47.110	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
46.768	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
46.424	What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024)	Continuous
46.287	Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024?	Multiple Choice
46.248	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Continuous
45.934	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
45.529	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
44.841	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
43.378	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
43.047	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
42.294	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
42.229	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
41.832	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
41.245	Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?	Binary
40.727	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
40.680	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
40.680	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
40.390	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
40.284	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
39.106	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
37.982	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
37.471	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
37.197	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
37.197	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
36.847	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
35.935	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
35.486	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
34.763	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
34.032	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
33.982	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?	Binary
33.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia)	Binary
33.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Iceland)	Binary
33.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Malta)	Binary
33.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Netherlands)	Binary
33.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland)	Binary
33.070	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ukraine)	Binary
32.743	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
32.738	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
32.687	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
32.682	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
32.390	Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?	Binary
31.674	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
31.415	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
30.952	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
29.952	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
29.825	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
29.781	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
28.714	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
27.487	Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?	Binary
26.396	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
26.094	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.925	Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024)	Binary
25.872	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
25.782	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024)	Continuous
25.593	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
24.779	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
24.766	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
24.527	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
24.527	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
23.363	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
22.734	What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
22.514	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
21.847	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
21.521	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
21.217	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
21.200	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
21.192	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
20.893	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
20.825	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
20.725	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
19.841	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
19.227	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
19.071	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
19.052	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
19.005	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
18.841	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024)	Continuous
18.351	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
17.723	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
17.718	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
17.049	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.981	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
16.056	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
15.130	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan?	Multiple Choice
15.102	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
14.312	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
14.303	Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
14.209	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.988	Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?	Binary
13.271	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
13.203	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
12.864	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
12.496	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
12.305	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
12.175	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
11.665	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
11.612	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
11.363	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2)	Binary
11.092	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
10.891	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
10.798	Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?	Binary
10.527	Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?	Binary
10.459	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
10.172	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
10.016	Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season?	Multiple Choice
9.957	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
9.747	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
9.604	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
9.582	Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia?	Multiple Choice
9.429	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?	Binary
8.859	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
7.964	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (ADN (Alternativa Democrática Nacional))	Continuous
7.964	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (JPP (Juntos pelo Povo))	Continuous
7.964	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PAN (Pessoas-Animais-Natureza))	Continuous
7.964	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (RIR (Reagir, Incluir, Reciclar))	Continuous
7.964	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (VP (Volt Portugal))	Continuous
7.601	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
7.133	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CDU (Coligação Democrática Unitária))	Continuous
7.133	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (L (LIVRE))	Continuous
6.853	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (BE (Bloco de Esquerda))	Continuous
6.792	In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot?	Continuous
6.290	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (IL (Iniciativa Liberal))	Continuous
5.902	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture)	Binary
5.902	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director)	Binary
5.902	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay)	Binary
5.817	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024?	Binary
5.814	Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?	Binary
5.635	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka?	Multiple Choice
5.197	When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs?	Multiple Choice
4.970	Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
4.714	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
4.433	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PS (Partido Socialista))	Continuous
4.348	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (AD (Aliança Democrática))	Continuous
4.203	[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?	Binary
4.027	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
3.962	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
3.489	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
3.325	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
3.076	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona)	Binary
3.036	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
2.986	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
2.509	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CH (Chega!))	Continuous
2.473	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
2.339	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
2.306	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
1.234	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
1.230	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
1.222	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
1.159	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic?	Multiple Choice
1.120	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
1.049	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Armenia)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Australia)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Czechia)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Denmark)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Greece)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Ireland)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Lithuania)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Moldova)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Norway)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (San Marino)	Binary
0.950	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Slovenia)	Binary
0.693	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
0.483	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Austria)	Binary
0.483	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Israel)	Binary
0.459	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
0.386	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Estonia)	Binary
0.386	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Luxembourg)	Binary
0.333	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Cyprus)	Binary
0.333	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Georgia)	Binary
0.309	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
0.277	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Albania)	Binary
0.225	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
0.178	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
0.112	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
0.106	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
0.106	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
0.089	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
0.061	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
0.001	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan)	Binary
-0.050	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
-0.166	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
-0.183	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Serbia)	Binary
-0.183	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Azerbaijan)	Binary
-0.592	When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live?	Continuous
-1.372	Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-1.734	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-1.928	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress)	Binary
-2.047	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?	Binary
-2.341	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
-3.973	(closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
-4.219	How many of these Cabinet ministers will fail to be re-elected to the House of Commons at the next UK election?	Continuous
-4.768	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
-4.901	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-5.333	How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election?	Continuous
-5.438	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Portugal)	Binary
-5.438	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Poland)	Binary
-5.439	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Belgium)	Binary
-7.659	Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament?	Multiple Choice
-9.223	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-9.816	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-18.095	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris)	Continuous
-19.687	Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award?	Multiple Choice
-21.085	How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024?	Multiple Choice
-22.542	Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (39th Amendment ("The Family"))	Binary
-22.622	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
-22.939	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
-25.253	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
-26.009	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-29.298	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
-30.018	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
-33.696	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3)	Binary
-34.118	[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?	Binary
-35.018	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-36.340	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-37.743	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-39.070	What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024)	Continuous
-41.789	If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
-42.312	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-46.834	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
-48.684	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
-48.692	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-50.265	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
-50.851	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
-51.605	Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (40th Amendment ("Care"))	Binary
-58.681	Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?	Binary
-59.788	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-62.962	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-63.542	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland?	Multiple Choice
-64.779	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
-68.182	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?	Binary
-68.719	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
-68.876	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-69.564	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-70.619	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
-73.907	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
-74.260	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-76.097	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-77.681	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-80.472	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-84.025	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-92.248	When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?	Continuous
-92.407	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-97.815	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
-97.950	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-100.572	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-104.404	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
-116.834	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-118.106	Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS?	Multiple Choice
-124.227	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
-139.900	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-141.960	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
-173.776	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-189.391	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Latvia)	Binary
-191.640	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-227.536	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-311.593	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-390.897	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
-521.617	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-526.267	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
-540.470	Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?	Binary
-557.124	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary