| 99.043 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
| 99.043 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
| 98.721 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.469 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 98.469 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 98.456 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 98.346 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 98.346 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 98.308 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 97.748 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 97.748 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 97.748 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 97.748 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 97.748 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
| 97.422 | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
| 96.509 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
| 96.198 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.597 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
| 95.390 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 94.896 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 94.603 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 94.290 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 94.138 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 93.973 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 93.755 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 93.694 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 93.661 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 92.936 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 92.838 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
| 92.509 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 92.244 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 91.577 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 90.854 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.151 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 90.003 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 89.669 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.107 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.567 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.075 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 87.481 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 87.217 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
| 86.826 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 85.220 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
| 84.667 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 84.667 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.476 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 84.365 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 84.089 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.798 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 83.737 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.690 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
| 83.147 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
| 83.147 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
| 82.528 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
| 81.438 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 81.026 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.305 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 80.205 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 79.683 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
| 79.584 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 78.605 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 78.078 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 77.457 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.414 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
| 76.682 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 76.087 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.758 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 73.731 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 72.318 | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 71.750 | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
| 70.578 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 70.328 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 69.665 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.252 | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.909 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 67.586 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
| 67.033 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 66.819 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 64.318 | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
| 64.087 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 63.543 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
| 63.226 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
| 63.186 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 62.730 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
| 62.669 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 61.834 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 61.421 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 60.947 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 58.532 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 58.404 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| 58.404 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Binary |
| 58.352 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 57.195 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
| 56.957 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 56.450 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.042 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 55.934 | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
| 55.751 | Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025? | Binary |
| 55.142 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
| 54.802 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 54.674 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 53.463 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 52.898 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 52.112 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware) | Continuous |
| 52.070 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.966 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.772 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.555 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
| 50.933 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) | Continuous |
| 50.450 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.785 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 49.468 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 49.422 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
| 49.118 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 48.696 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
| 48.543 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
| 47.111 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide)) | Continuous |
| 46.949 | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 46.530 | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 46.381 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 45.749 | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
| 45.242 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 44.474 | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 44.455 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 43.181 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I)) | Binary |
| 43.177 | What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be? | Continuous |
| 42.902 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024) | Binary |
| 42.534 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 42.302 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
| 41.957 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico) | Continuous |
| 41.732 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon) | Continuous |
| 41.199 | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
| 41.150 | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 40.035 | How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 39.086 | Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster? | Binary |
| 38.913 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state)) | Continuous |
| 38.711 | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 37.119 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
| 34.840 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa) | Continuous |
| 34.145 | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 34.029 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 33.873 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
| 31.971 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 31.890 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 31.696 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| 31.424 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
| 31.393 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 30.830 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 29.923 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 29.390 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 28.336 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 28.181 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 27.033 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 25.997 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 24.076 | How Many States or Jurisdictions Will Decide the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Continuous |
| 22.331 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 21.527 | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
| 20.730 | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 20.651 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 20.436 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 17.392 | What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)? | Binary |
| 15.293 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 13.856 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.241 | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
| 12.956 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 12.359 | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
| 12.014 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
| 11.913 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025 | Binary |
| 11.722 | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 11.186 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
| 8.918 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 8.844 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| 8.213 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.501 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 6.001 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 5.872 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 5.812 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.487 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 5.192 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 4.659 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
| 4.276 | After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus? | Multiple Choice |
| 4.208 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.589 | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 3.250 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 2.591 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 2.350 | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.945 | Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives? | Binary |
| 1.733 | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.658 | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
| 1.590 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.542 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.036 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 0.980 | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.869 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
| - | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| -0.048 | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| -2.555 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| -3.080 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| -4.111 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -6.240 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| -9.766 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| -10.787 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| -12.925 | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -13.633 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| -14.262 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
| -15.493 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey) | Continuous |
| -15.837 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -17.632 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| -17.639 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| -19.338 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -20.524 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| -21.558 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| -22.705 | Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -23.109 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -23.221 | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
| -23.234 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| -23.559 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -24.264 | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| -30.235 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| -33.923 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
| -44.325 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -54.726 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
| -58.752 | 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -64.359 | How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election? | Multiple Choice |
| -75.381 | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -87.776 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
| -90.030 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -102.040 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -108.965 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
| -132.774 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -135.854 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -143.423 | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -157.246 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| -206.022 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
| -347.189 | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |