| 138.301 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
| 127.350 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
| 118.984 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
| 103.296 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
| 102.554 | What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan at the end of December 2024? | Continuous |
| 101.200 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
| 99.580 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025? | Binary |
| 99.577 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
| 99.238 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 99.099 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.966 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
| 98.955 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 98.927 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
| 98.918 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 98.840 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 98.792 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk) | Binary |
| 98.732 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 98.587 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.432 | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
| 98.377 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk) | Binary |
| 98.325 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
| 98.290 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
| 98.285 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.179 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 98.167 | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.134 | Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.071 | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
| 98.014 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.826 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 97.766 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
| 97.631 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
| 97.515 | Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 97.495 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 97.490 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.376 | Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 97.215 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.112 | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
| 97.078 | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.952 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.827 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 96.639 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
| 96.529 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
| 96.488 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 96.486 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 96.217 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1) | Binary |
| 96.186 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.917 | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? | Binary |
| 95.893 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.612 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.583 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.565 | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.519 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 95.441 | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
| 95.208 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.187 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
| 94.945 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.660 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 94.545 | Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 94.241 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 94.089 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 94.022 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
| 93.938 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
| 93.759 | Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.701 | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
| 93.621 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
| 93.413 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 93.265 | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 93.221 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 93.121 | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
| 92.859 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.609 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.376 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 92.240 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
| 91.891 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.763 | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 91.754 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
| 91.658 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
| 91.637 | Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? | Binary |
| 91.627 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.607 | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.569 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 91.225 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.122 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 90.920 | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 90.916 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.783 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.713 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
| 90.657 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| 90.625 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 90.387 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 90.354 | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 90.320 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.281 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 89.940 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 89.716 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
| 89.580 | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 89.520 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 89.458 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
| 89.408 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.253 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
| 89.170 | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
| 89.091 | Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 88.955 | Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | Binary |
| 88.806 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 88.488 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
| 88.420 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.028 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
| 87.984 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.865 | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
| 87.650 | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 87.590 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
| 87.470 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 87.459 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania? | Multiple Choice |
| 86.967 | DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024 | Binary |
| 86.635 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 86.612 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.596 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.524 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
| 86.185 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Apr. 30, '24) | Continuous |
| 86.115 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 86.087 | Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.574 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | Binary |
| 85.572 | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 85.467 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.327 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 85.232 | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.793 | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | Binary |
| 84.540 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 83.901 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.860 | Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.050 | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
| 82.981 | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 82.862 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
| 82.434 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
| 82.293 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
| 82.180 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 82.054 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 81.925 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
| 81.509 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 81.421 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.382 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 80.967 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 80.680 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
| 80.543 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
| 80.530 | Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.431 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 80.132 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 79.207 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
| 78.802 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 78.346 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.268 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 78.167 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 77.845 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.709 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.623 | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 77.089 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.939 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| 76.901 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
| 76.557 | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 76.290 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia? | Multiple Choice |
| 75.665 | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
| 75.343 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 75.074 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana? | Multiple Choice |
| 74.805 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.675 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
| 73.953 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24) | Continuous |
| 73.949 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (May 2024) | Continuous |
| 72.837 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 72.181 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 72.031 | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 72.008 | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
| 71.285 | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| 71.267 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 71.209 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 71.119 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 70.937 | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 70.321 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
| 70.146 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 70.098 | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | Binary |
| 69.855 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
| 69.825 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.785 | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
| 69.730 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
| 69.720 | Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | Binary |
| 69.717 | How Many States or Jurisdictions Will Decide the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Continuous |
| 69.563 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 69.443 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 69.238 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 69.184 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 69.016 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
| 68.477 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 68.332 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | Continuous |
| 67.870 | Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 67.497 | Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 67.460 | What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| 67.318 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 67.282 | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| 67.277 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
| 67.168 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 67.026 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 66.969 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 66.961 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
| 66.609 | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.959 | Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Multiple Choice |
| 65.913 | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 65.898 | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
| 65.629 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
| 65.277 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 64.788 | In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot? | Continuous |
| 64.772 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 64.552 | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
| 64.256 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 64.110 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
| 64.073 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 63.893 | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
| 63.523 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
| 63.429 | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 62.550 | Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 61.991 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
| 61.111 | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
| 60.775 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
| 60.561 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
| 60.540 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 60.396 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 60.338 | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
| 60.247 | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 60.192 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Aug. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 60.116 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
| 59.552 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 59.471 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
| 59.407 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 59.243 | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 58.853 | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.741 | What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term? | Multiple Choice |
| 58.625 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
| 58.419 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
| 58.338 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
| 58.295 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
| 58.154 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.831 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
| 57.716 | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.630 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 57.421 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
| 57.315 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| 57.261 | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
| 57.110 | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
| 56.588 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
| 55.943 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
| 55.495 | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 55.156 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
| 54.788 | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 54.370 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 54.343 | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
| 54.266 | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
| 54.043 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 53.769 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
| 53.654 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 53.554 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025 | Binary |
| 53.398 | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 52.924 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
| 52.515 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Dec. 29, '24) | Continuous |
| 52.331 | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
| 52.098 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Oct. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 51.974 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24) | Continuous |
| 51.871 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 51.592 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 51.568 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
| 51.205 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 51.018 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 50.911 | What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary? | Continuous |
| 50.855 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| 50.802 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 50.586 | For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl? | Continuous |
| 50.492 | How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024? | Continuous |
| 50.329 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
| 50.324 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 50.018 | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
| 49.875 | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
| 49.242 | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 48.936 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Sep. 28, '24) | Continuous |
| 48.885 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
| 48.703 | Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran? | Binary |
| 48.473 | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
| 47.810 | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
| 47.561 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 47.399 | On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark? | Multiple Choice |
| 47.209 | 2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? | Binary |
| 46.352 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 45.785 | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 45.499 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.449 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.036 | US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 45.021 | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
| 44.749 | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
| 44.198 | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
| 43.621 | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 43.402 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 43.303 | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.691 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
| 42.157 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
| 41.424 | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
| 41.336 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.502 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.846 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 38.561 | Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final? | Multiple Choice |
| 38.163 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.084 | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 37.594 | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
| 37.459 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.405 | Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest? | Multiple Choice |
| 37.250 | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 36.811 | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 36.697 | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 36.556 | When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released? | Continuous |
| 36.377 | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 35.722 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 35.462 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 35.239 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 34.999 | Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 34.697 | Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster? | Binary |
| 34.080 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
| 33.616 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 33.596 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 33.341 | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 33.249 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 32.448 | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.243 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
| 31.754 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
| 31.405 | Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives? | Binary |
| 31.340 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.338 | Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.154 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 30.800 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 29.442 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
| 29.366 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.346 | What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025? | Continuous |
| 29.291 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 29.281 | Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024? | Binary |
| 28.915 | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | Binary |
| 27.912 | US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 27.463 | (closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.879 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.723 | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
| 26.428 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 26.052 | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 23.577 | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 23.511 | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 22.815 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic? | Multiple Choice |
| 22.134 | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 21.711 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
| 21.684 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
| 21.608 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| 21.555 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 21.532 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
| 21.378 | Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 21.370 | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 21.359 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
| 20.806 | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
| 20.776 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| 19.656 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.568 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 19.560 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 19.458 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
| 18.956 | What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election? | Continuous |
| 18.944 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 18.891 | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 18.495 | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.403 | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
| 16.736 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 16.718 | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
| 16.320 | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 16.231 | How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior? | Continuous |
| 15.702 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (National Democratic Alliance (NDA)) | Continuous |
| 15.696 | What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.543 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.406 | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 14.986 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 14.824 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
| 14.553 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.367 | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
| 14.188 | How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election? | Continuous |
| 13.746 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 13.672 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024? | Continuous |
| 13.592 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 13.035 | US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025) | Binary |
| 12.980 | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
| 11.126 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 11.006 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.999 | What will be the fate of Starliner Calypso by September 30? | Multiple Choice |
| 10.710 | ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024? | Binary |
| 9.928 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladimir Putin) | Continuous |
| 9.105 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
| 8.747 | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 7.920 | Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 7.499 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.157 | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 6.672 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.406 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 6.129 | What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)? | Continuous |
| 5.923 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.645 | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 5.579 | What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 5.408 | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 4.486 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? (Yes) → What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 3.641 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 3.493 | What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be? | Continuous |
| 2.990 | Trump Felony Conviction Before Election? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 2.861 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | Binary |
| 1.649 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
| 1.541 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (African National Congress) | Binary |
| 1.383 | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 1.209 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Democratic Alliance) | Binary |
| 1.065 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party) | Binary |
| 0.940 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| 0.936 | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
| 0.655 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
| 0.395 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| -0.327 | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -0.391 | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
| -0.815 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| -0.857 | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
| -1.882 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024) | Binary |
| -2.180 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -3.046 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -3.863 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| -4.389 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -4.503 | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -4.570 | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
| -4.831 | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| -4.947 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -6.185 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Binary |
| -7.452 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -9.156 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.391 | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
| -9.721 | Which science fiction novel will win a Hugo Award in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -10.073 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
| -10.355 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| -12.291 | Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| -12.561 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| -13.272 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland? | Multiple Choice |
| -13.386 | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -14.180 | Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (40th Amendment ("Care")) | Binary |
| -14.180 | Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (39th Amendment ("The Family")) | Binary |
| -14.657 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024) | Continuous |
| -15.101 | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
| -16.851 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
| -17.907 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| -18.039 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -19.232 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| -19.894 | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -20.041 | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
| -22.430 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -22.629 | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| -23.431 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
| -23.679 | How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -24.232 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -24.770 | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| -26.334 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
| -26.674 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| -26.782 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| -27.842 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| -29.511 | What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Multiple Choice |
| -31.133 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India) | Binary |
| -31.192 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
| -31.755 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| -32.714 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (June 2024) | Continuous |
| -34.943 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
| -36.655 | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
| -37.458 | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
| -39.397 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| -42.457 | What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -44.853 | How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election? | Continuous |
| -47.302 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
| -49.946 | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
| -54.299 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
| -54.664 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany) | Binary |
| -56.109 | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
| -59.704 | What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -59.863 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -60.257 | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| -64.002 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
| -64.142 | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
| -65.666 | What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs? | Continuous |
| -66.385 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
| -69.324 | How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be? | Continuous |
| -69.958 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
| -70.775 | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
| -72.960 | Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| -77.091 | 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -85.081 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Indian Nat.Development Inclusive All. (INDIA)) | Continuous |
| -93.480 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| -94.627 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -95.206 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
| -96.817 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
| -96.977 | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
| -101.965 | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| -102.548 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan) | Binary |
| -106.293 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2024) | Continuous |
| -107.623 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
| -112.916 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -117.929 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
| -117.998 | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -119.979 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
| -120.334 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -123.299 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| -132.439 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024? | Binary |
| -132.606 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
| -139.809 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland? | Multiple Choice |
| -150.072 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
| -155.307 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -155.940 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -164.986 | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
| -171.043 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter? | Binary |
| -232.509 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -251.286 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
| -315.237 | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |