| 151.825 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Continuous |
| 134.144 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX) | Continuous |
| 117.563 | How Many States or Jurisdictions Will Decide the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Continuous |
| 117.413 | What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX) | Continuous |
| 105.590 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 99.115 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 98.941 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk) | Binary |
| 98.507 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel) | Binary |
| 98.507 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride) | Binary |
| 98.438 | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.392 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 98.392 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington) | Binary |
| 98.392 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 98.392 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California) | Binary |
| 98.349 | Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024? | Binary |
| 98.341 | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.340 | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Binary |
| 98.312 | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.298 | Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan? | Binary |
| 98.011 | Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the "hush money" case? | Binary |
| 97.871 | Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 97.759 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 97.759 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 97.759 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 97.759 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 97.759 | Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma) | Binary |
| 97.729 | Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza? | Binary |
| 97.602 | Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR? (2025) | Binary |
| 97.520 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland) | Binary |
| 97.495 | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Binary |
| 97.364 | Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.330 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1) | Binary |
| 97.330 | Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk) | Binary |
| 97.286 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E) | Binary |
| 97.034 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 96.946 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 96.906 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 96.906 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 96.638 | Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 96.182 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 96.174 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 95.822 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth) | Binary |
| 95.758 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 95.682 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| 95.575 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar) | Binary |
| 95.459 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.199 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Binary |
| 95.174 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Apr. 30, '24) | Continuous |
| 95.014 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 94.517 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 93.932 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat) | Binary |
| 93.932 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly) | Binary |
| 93.876 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 93.859 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 93.711 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 93.437 | Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.005 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 92.786 | Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025? | Binary |
| 92.764 | Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case? | Binary |
| 92.717 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 92.684 | Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.564 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 92.526 | Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 92.292 | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 92.214 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear) | Binary |
| 92.144 | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Jan 2025) | Binary |
| 92.090 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper) | Binary |
| 92.071 | Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.907 | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Dec 2024) | Binary |
| 91.516 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 91.507 | Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 91.457 | What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election? | Continuous |
| 91.390 | What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan at the end of December 2024? | Continuous |
| 91.125 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 91.080 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 91.000 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jun. 29, '24) | Continuous |
| 90.904 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro) | Binary |
| 90.764 | Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024? | Binary |
| 90.420 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique? | Multiple Choice |
| 90.127 | Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 90.064 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Jul. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 89.936 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 89.707 | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Binary |
| 89.270 | Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 89.246 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 88.878 | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President? | Binary |
| 88.842 | Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.823 | Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 88.257 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 88.196 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.803 | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Binary |
| 87.230 | Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal? | Binary |
| 86.961 | Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? | Multiple Choice |
| 86.941 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania? | Multiple Choice |
| 86.788 | Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.634 | Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.423 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Binary |
| 86.372 | Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year? (2025) | Binary |
| 86.352 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E)) | Binary |
| 86.161 | On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory? | Multiple Choice |
| 86.067 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 85.865 | Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.769 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria? | Multiple Choice |
| 85.412 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.400 | Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 85.209 | Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.997 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova? | Multiple Choice |
| 84.880 | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Binary |
| 84.538 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet) | Binary |
| 84.370 | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 83.587 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| 83.525 | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Nov 2024) | Binary |
| 83.301 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson) | Binary |
| 83.193 | Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 83.121 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 82.955 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo) | Binary |
| 82.794 | Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024) | Binary |
| 82.412 | At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s? | Binary |
| 82.369 | Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025? | Binary |
| 82.173 | Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 81.460 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda? | Multiple Choice |
| 81.417 | Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 81.340 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E)) | Binary |
| 81.251 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly) | Binary |
| 81.194 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.997 | Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 80.732 | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Binary |
| 80.536 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Leonid Slutsky) | Continuous |
| 80.119 | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Binary |
| 80.064 | Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona? | Multiple Choice |
| 79.479 | EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025) | Continuous |
| 79.411 | Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 79.298 | What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 78.821 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.781 | [Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 78.672 | How many MPs will New Democracy have in the following dates? | Πόσους βουλευτές θα έχει η Νέα Δημοκρατία τις εξής ημερομηνίες; (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 78.632 | What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 78.548 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 78.507 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters) | Binary |
| 78.351 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in South Sudan? | Multiple Choice |
| 78.302 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 78.196 | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case? | Binary |
| 77.920 | Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March? | Binary |
| 77.907 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.591 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris) | Continuous |
| 77.443 | Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections? | Binary |
| 77.431 | Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024? | Binary |
| 77.214 | Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.076 | Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 77.025 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.768 | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 75.684 | Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.626 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin) | Continuous |
| 75.552 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Aug. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 75.542 | What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| 75.344 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 75.040 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks) | Binary |
| 74.955 | [Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly? | Binary |
| 74.912 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5) | Binary |
| 74.815 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more) | Binary |
| 74.715 | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 74.408 | What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 74.390 | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 74.345 | Who will win the Tour de France 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 74.242 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| 74.091 | Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024? | Binary |
| 73.842 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism) | Binary |
| 73.842 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism) | Binary |
| 73.842 | Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure) | Binary |
| 73.239 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 72.631 | How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024? | Continuous |
| 71.900 | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 71.271 | Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025? | Binary |
| 71.125 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan) | Binary |
| 70.993 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024) | Continuous |
| 70.814 | Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| 70.811 | When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 70.614 | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Binary |
| 70.172 | Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 69.828 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia? | Multiple Choice |
| 69.386 | Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.249 | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 69.240 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Sri Lanka? | Multiple Choice |
| 69.190 | Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA? (2024) | Binary |
| 69.023 | Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | Binary |
| 68.789 | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 68.572 | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Binary |
| 68.348 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 68.151 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Democratic Alliance) | Continuous |
| 67.892 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (2) | Binary |
| 67.743 | What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 67.546 | Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025? | Binary |
| 66.898 | How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2? | Continuous |
| 66.799 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States) | Continuous |
| 66.621 | Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 66.450 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6) | Binary |
| 66.290 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state)) | Continuous |
| 66.215 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African National Congress) | Continuous |
| 66.179 | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.575 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| 65.534 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 65.334 | Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.126 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon) | Continuous |
| 65.034 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | Binary |
| 65.014 | DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024 | Binary |
| 64.664 | Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024? | Binary |
| 64.119 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district) | Continuous |
| 63.915 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 63.872 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (May 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 63.455 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 63.197 | By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Continuous |
| 62.828 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado) | Continuous |
| 62.665 | What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average? | Continuous |
| 62.441 | Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards? | Binary |
| 62.317 | Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 62.208 | On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap? | Binary |
| 61.921 | What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial? | Multiple Choice |
| 61.634 | Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election? | Binary |
| 61.555 | How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 61.450 | What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected) | Continuous |
| 61.290 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (La France Insoumise) | Continuous |
| 61.202 | How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year? | Multiple Choice |
| 61.007 | What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| 60.909 | Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 60.870 | Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.699 | Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025? | Binary |
| 60.430 | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 60.163 | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.937 | Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025? | Binary |
| 59.761 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana? | Multiple Choice |
| 59.676 | Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 59.353 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 59.332 | Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024? | Binary |
| 59.279 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | Binary |
| 58.584 | Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 58.199 | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 57.999 | In the Q3 AI Benchmarking tournament, how will the Pro aggregate Baseline score compare to the best bot? | Continuous |
| 57.941 | Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season? | Binary |
| 57.609 | Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024? | Binary |
| 57.179 | What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024? | Continuous |
| 57.105 | Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.034 | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024? | Binary |
| 56.925 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 56.619 | What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 56.101 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| 56.050 | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | Binary |
| 55.982 | Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.924 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina) | Continuous |
| 55.874 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia) | Continuous |
| 55.482 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 55.478 | Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 55.444 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Les Républicains) | Continuous |
| 55.254 | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 55.110 | Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.090 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Non affiliated) | Continuous |
| 54.930 | What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| 54.838 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Nikolay Kharitonov) | Continuous |
| 54.681 | Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics? | Binary |
| 54.076 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Dec. 29, '24) | Continuous |
| 54.075 | What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024? | Continuous |
| 54.055 | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? | Binary |
| 53.271 | How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52? | Continuous |
| 53.052 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 52.696 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| 52.434 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (December 2024) | Continuous |
| 52.417 | What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA? | Continuous |
| 52.219 | What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024? | Continuous |
| 52.021 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.971 | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Binary |
| 51.629 | How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 51.468 | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting? | Binary |
| 50.822 | Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 50.706 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Continuous |
| 50.149 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 20, 2024) | Continuous |
| 50.050 | Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 49.982 | Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote? | Binary |
| 49.730 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (COVID-19: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| 49.335 | How many personal bankruptcies will be filed in the United States in the third quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.312 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (3) | Binary |
| 49.208 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (May 2024) | Continuous |
| 49.074 | Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 48.750 | 2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? | Binary |
| 48.567 | Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 48.490 | Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War? | Binary |
| 48.116 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware) | Continuous |
| 48.109 | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Binary |
| 48.095 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Socialiste) | Continuous |
| 47.749 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (National Democratic Alliance (NDA)) | Continuous |
| 47.742 | What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024? | Continuous |
| 47.730 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota) | Continuous |
| 47.433 | Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025? | Binary |
| 47.376 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 47.239 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.880 | Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.702 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (ActionSA) | Continuous |
| 46.442 | Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 46.382 | What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025? | Continuous |
| 46.042 | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Binary |
| 45.987 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Continuous |
| 45.666 | Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth? | Multiple Choice |
| 45.593 | On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark? | Multiple Choice |
| 45.436 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Oct. 31, '24) | Continuous |
| 45.246 | What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024? | Continuous |
| 45.093 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Nov. 30, '24) | Continuous |
| 44.592 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 44.570 | Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 44.568 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladislav Davankov) | Continuous |
| 44.338 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 44.182 | Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders? | Binary |
| 43.669 | Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | Multiple Choice |
| 43.357 | Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting? | Multiple Choice |
| 43.321 | Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election? | Binary |
| 43.269 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Other parties and independents) | Continuous |
| 43.031 | Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.781 | Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term? | Binary |
| 42.673 | What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024? | Continuous |
| 42.622 | Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025? | Binary |
| 42.093 | Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? | Binary |
| 41.700 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E)) | Binary |
| 41.636 | Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 41.623 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Binary |
| 41.531 | After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus? | Multiple Choice |
| 41.444 | What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024? | Continuous |
| 41.121 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups) | Binary |
| 41.121 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use) | Binary |
| 41.121 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban) | Binary |
| 40.732 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (Freedom Front Plus) | Continuous |
| 40.677 | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Binary |
| 40.586 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, September 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 40.331 | When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live? | Continuous |
| 40.322 | What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.860 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 21, 2024) | Continuous |
| 39.722 | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Binary |
| 39.711 | FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak? | Continuous |
| 39.409 | Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025? | Binary |
| 38.788 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications) | Binary |
| 38.512 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 38.459 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.455 | LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024? | Binary |
| 38.222 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (May 2024) | Continuous |
| 38.035 | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Binary |
| 37.545 | What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA? | Continuous |
| 37.390 | Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before 2025? | Binary |
| 37.375 | What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| 37.362 | Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| 37.210 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Binary |
| 37.066 | Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 37.015 | What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (May 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.889 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri) | Binary |
| 36.811 | What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.739 | What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Sep. 28, '24) | Continuous |
| 36.585 | What will be the quarterly change for the employee Living Cost Index (LCI) of Australia, for the following quarters? (Q2 2024) | Continuous |
| 36.526 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia) | Binary |
| 36.383 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania) | Continuous |
| 36.102 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements) | Binary |
| 35.843 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide)) | Continuous |
| 35.784 | What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 35.556 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China) | Binary |
| 35.556 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Brazil) | Binary |
| 35.556 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Mexico) | Binary |
| 35.556 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (France) | Binary |
| 35.488 | On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX? | Continuous |
| 35.073 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| 35.064 | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Binary |
| 35.002 | Who will be the new leader of PASOK after the elections of October 2024? | Who will be the new PASOK leader after the October 2024 elections? | Multiple Choice |
| 34.894 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (African Christian Democratic Party) | Continuous |
| 34.867 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio) | Continuous |
| 34.493 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | Binary |
| 34.430 | Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024? | Binary |
| 33.988 | What will be the Xclaim market price for FTX accounts, as a % of account balance, on April 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 33.359 | Who will win the 2024-25 presidential election in Croatia? | Multiple Choice |
| 33.085 | Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.969 | What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Continuous |
| 32.805 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau? | Multiple Choice |
| 32.354 | What will be the price of Palladium futures (in $USD) at the end of 2024? | Continuous |
| 32.084 | How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 31.916 | What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Apr. 6, 2024) | Continuous |
| 31.330 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance) | Continuous |
| 30.996 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (December 7, 2024) | Continuous |
| 30.573 | At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal? | Binary |
| 30.113 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 South African general election? (uMkhonto we Sizwe) | Continuous |
| 29.732 | What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladimir Putin) | Continuous |
| 27.805 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico) | Continuous |
| 27.728 | Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 27.178 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana) | Binary |
| 27.096 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia) | Continuous |
| 27.083 | If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute? | Binary |
| 26.891 | What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters? | Continuous |
| 26.790 | How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.716 | When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 26.707 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025) | Continuous |
| 26.585 | How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024? | Continuous |
| 26.231 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 26.207 | How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 26.149 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 26.067 | What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024? | Continuous |
| 25.879 | [Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election? | Binary |
| 25.675 | Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election? | Binary |
| 25.404 | Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Binary |
| 25.275 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Indonesia) | Binary |
| 25.230 | What will be the quarterly change for the employee Living Cost Index (LCI) of Australia, for the following quarters? (Q3 2024) | Continuous |
| 25.040 | What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, October 1 2024) | Continuous |
| 24.972 | Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Multiple Choice |
| 24.659 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Bangladesh) | Binary |
| 23.211 | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Binary |
| 23.003 | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Binary |
| 22.981 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Démocrates (Modem and independents)) | Continuous |
| 22.966 | Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16? | Binary |
| 22.849 | What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)? | Continuous |
| 22.607 | Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Thuringia state election? | Multiple Choice |
| 22.592 | Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024? | Binary |
| 22.495 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan) | Continuous |
| 22.476 | How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (Indian Nat.Development Inclusive All. (INDIA)) | Continuous |
| 21.487 | Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion? | Binary |
| 21.393 | US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| 21.334 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire) | Continuous |
| 21.145 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws) | Binary |
| 21.121 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (1) | Binary |
| 20.620 | What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 20.234 | Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 20.098 | What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 19.790 | Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad? | Multiple Choice |
| 18.858 | What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (November 23, 2024) | Continuous |
| 18.593 | What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be? | Continuous |
| 18.467 | Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction) | Binary |
| 17.931 | Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections? | Binary |
| 17.433 | Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| 17.349 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa) | Continuous |
| 16.773 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Parti Communiste) | Continuous |
| 16.678 | Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 16.343 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-24) | Continuous |
| 15.686 | How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.208 | Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024? | Binary |
| 15.101 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15) | Continuous |
| 14.954 | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Binary |
| 14.903 | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Binary |
| 14.826 | 2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election? | Binary |
| 14.754 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Horizons) | Continuous |
| 14.464 | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 14.382 | Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season? | Multiple Choice |
| 14.099 | Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024? | Binary |
| 13.542 | What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (June 2024) | Continuous |
| 13.235 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 13.182 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | Binary |
| 13.110 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 13.014 | Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election? | Binary |
| 12.792 | Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament? | Multiple Choice |
| 12.428 | Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025? | Binary |
| 12.407 | Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24? | Binary |
| 12.167 | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics? | Binary |
| 11.883 | Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025? | Binary |
| 11.837 | Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)? | Binary |
| 11.638 | Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season? | Binary |
| 11.408 | What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.261 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Other parties) | Continuous |
| 10.809 | Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 10.569 | How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior? | Continuous |
| 10.053 | When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers? | Continuous |
| 10.027 | What percentage of the Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan 2024 budget will be funded by December 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 9.413 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Zambia) | Binary |
| 8.811 | What is the probability that the weather in Warwick, RI will fall below 43 degrees F at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)? | Binary |
| 8.675 | What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)? | Binary |
| 8.609 | What is the expected (median) date of deuterium-tritium fusion operations for ITER in its new schedule (2024)? | Continuous |
| 8.589 | Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 8.510 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 8.428 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada) | Continuous |
| 8.201 | Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster? | Binary |
| 8.184 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in the Dominican Republic? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.278 | By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting? | Multiple Choice |
| 7.084 | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.677 | On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group? | Multiple Choice |
| 6.554 | If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government? | Multiple Choice |
| 6.553 | Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 6.453 | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Binary |
| 6.360 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (November 2024) | Continuous |
| 5.747 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch) | Binary |
| 5.747 | Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick) | Binary |
| 5.632 | What will be the total number of refugees from Sudan in neighboring countries by the end of December 2024? | Continuous |
| 5.555 | What will be the quarterly change for the employee Living Cost Index (LCI) of Australia, for the following quarters? (Q4 2024) | Continuous |
| 4.666 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska) | Continuous |
| 4.635 | What will be the fate of Starliner Calypso by September 30? | Multiple Choice |
| 4.159 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (ADN (Alternativa Democrática Nacional)) | Continuous |
| 4.139 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (JPP (Juntos pelo Povo)) | Continuous |
| 4.131 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (RIR (Reagir, Incluir, Reciclar)) | Continuous |
| 4.131 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PAN (Pessoas-Animais-Natureza)) | Continuous |
| 4.131 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (VP (Volt Portugal)) | Continuous |
| 3.851 | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.776 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | Binary |
| 3.676 | How many of these Cabinet ministers will fail to be re-elected to the House of Commons at the next UK election? | Continuous |
| 3.446 | What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election? | Continuous |
| 3.266 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (L (LIVRE)) | Continuous |
| 3.177 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CDU (Coligação Democrática Unitária)) | Continuous |
| 3.127 | Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024 | Binary |
| 2.830 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (BE (Bloco de Esquerda)) | Continuous |
| 2.693 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois) | Continuous |
| 2.691 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (IL (Iniciativa Liberal)) | Continuous |
| 2.401 | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Binary |
| 2.361 | What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| 2.084 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture) | Binary |
| 2.084 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director) | Binary |
| 2.084 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay) | Binary |
| 1.982 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 1.981 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (AD (Aliança Democrática)) | Continuous |
| 1.970 | Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"? | Binary |
| 1.870 | Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.868 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (PS (Partido Socialista)) | Continuous |
| 1.643 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (African National Congress) | Binary |
| 1.176 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (uMkhonto we Sizwe Party) | Binary |
| 1.176 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Economic Freedom Fighters) | Binary |
| 1.077 | [Short Fuse] When will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike end for the Port of New York and New Jersey? | Continuous |
| 0.868 | New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025 | Binary |
| 0.864 | When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff? | Continuous |
| 0.850 | Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 0.766 | [Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk? | Binary |
| 0.545 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Democratic Alliance) | Binary |
| 0.545 | Will each of these parties be in the ruling coalition in South Africa? (Inkatha Freedom Party) | Binary |
| 0.000 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025 | Binary |
| 0.000 | Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined? | Binary |
| - | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nebraska (Class I)) | Binary |
| - | ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Oct 2024) | Binary |
| - | Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024? | Binary |
| - | Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition? | Binary |
| - | Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| - | Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| - | If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024? | Binary |
| - | Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025? | Binary |
| -0.008 | Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election? | Binary |
| -0.069 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (CH (Chega!)) | Continuous |
| -0.281 | On how many days in the following years will China carry out “reactionary” air incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone? (2024) | Continuous |
| -0.282 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela? | Multiple Choice |
| -0.342 | Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason? | Binary |
| -0.681 | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -0.793 | Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress) | Binary |
| -1.899 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (September 2024) | Continuous |
| -2.290 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland? | Multiple Choice |
| -2.618 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -3.279 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (India) | Binary |
| -3.313 | What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30) | Continuous |
| -3.510 | Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -4.331 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | Binary |
| -4.495 | RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| -4.911 | Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -6.173 | How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | Multiple Choice |
| -7.593 | What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024? | Continuous |
| -7.832 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Continuous |
| -8.382 | Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024? | Binary |
| -8.647 | How many times will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -10.012 | What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024? | Continuous |
| -10.326 | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? | Binary |
| -10.753 | Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -10.769 | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Binary |
| -10.946 | Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024? | Binary |
| -12.381 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | Binary |
| -13.189 | 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Kamala Harris) (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| -13.799 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Ecologistes) | Continuous |
| -14.302 | Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024? | Binary |
| -14.562 | Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E)) | Binary |
| -14.876 | What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years? (End of 2024) | Continuous |
| -14.905 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Germany) | Binary |
| -15.089 | Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community? | Continuous |
| -15.804 | US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -16.212 | How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -17.370 | How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election? | Continuous |
| -18.080 | Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024? | Binary |
| -18.083 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Libertés, Indépendants, OutreMer, Territoires) | Continuous |
| -18.561 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United Kingdom) | Binary |
| -20.338 | What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -21.446 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona) | Continuous |
| -21.536 | Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly? | Binary |
| -24.470 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024? | Continuous |
| -24.604 | Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff? | Binary |
| -26.165 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (United States) | Binary |
| -26.674 | What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD? | Continuous |
| -28.503 | Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Binary |
| -28.836 | How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024? | Continuous |
| -29.352 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| -30.472 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? | Binary |
| -31.693 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (Influenza: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| -31.715 | Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024? | Binary |
| -32.474 | What percentage of older US adults will receive vaccinations for the 2024-2025 seasons for flu, COVID, and RSV at the end of December 2024 and the end of March 2025? (RSV: December 28, 2024) | Continuous |
| -32.608 | How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season? | Multiple Choice |
| -32.889 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| -32.898 | Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan) | Binary |
| -33.793 | Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -34.553 | When will monthly global land-surface temperatures fall below record highs? | Multiple Choice |
| -34.977 | How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup? | Continuous |
| -35.206 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (August 2024) | Continuous |
| -35.487 | Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024? | Binary |
| -35.697 | Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures? | Binary |
| -36.457 | Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives? | Binary |
| -38.391 | How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election? | Multiple Choice |
| -40.624 | What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025? | Continuous |
| -40.999 | How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection in the following months? (June 2024) | Continuous |
| -42.744 | [Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election? | Binary |
| -42.784 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024? | Binary |
| -44.770 | What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024? | Continuous |
| -47.429 | What will be RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election? | Continuous |
| -48.483 | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | Binary |
| -48.896 | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? | Binary |
| -49.848 | 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -50.580 | AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025) | Binary |
| -53.707 | Will Allan Lichtman’s September 2024 prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct? | Binary |
| -54.282 | Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech? | Binary |
| -55.058 | Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| -55.542 | Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -56.352 | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Binary |
| -56.844 | How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024? | Multiple Choice |
| -57.051 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| -62.462 | 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| -64.447 | Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event? | Binary |
| -65.137 | Which manufacturer's vehicle will return astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore to Earth from the ISS? | Multiple Choice |
| -66.374 | How many wild polio cases will be detected by the World Health Organization in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| -75.902 | Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections? | Binary |
| -77.510 | Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -78.891 | Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games? | Binary |
| -78.918 | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Binary |
| -80.656 | When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released? | Continuous |
| -82.207 | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Binary |
| -82.396 | How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4) | Binary |
| -87.199 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida) | Continuous |
| -87.207 | Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland? | Multiple Choice |
| -88.899 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen? | Binary |
| -90.020 | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Binary |
| -98.944 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | Binary |
| -109.273 | Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025? | Binary |
| -114.100 | How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National) | Continuous |
| -115.175 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024? | Binary |
| -118.716 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter? | Binary |
| -123.872 | In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark? (2024) | Continuous |
| -126.146 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York) | Continuous |
| -126.625 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas) | Continuous |
| -139.285 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | Binary |
| -140.881 | How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024? | Continuous |
| -145.817 | Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election? | Multiple Choice |
| -148.723 | Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out? | Binary |
| -163.801 | What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey) | Continuous |
| -181.423 | 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025? | Binary |
| -225.704 | Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| -268.052 | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Binary |
| -326.883 | Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament? | Binary |