kqr

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6243	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
113.150	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
102.532	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
98.119	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
97.064	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
95.395	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
94.780	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
94.064	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
93.592	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
93.380	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
93.335	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
93.160	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
92.660	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.989	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
90.556	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
90.217	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
89.789	How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in the fourth quarter of 2024?	Continuous
89.509	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
89.466	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
87.950	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
87.718	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
86.248	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
86.067	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
85.481	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
85.208	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
84.793	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
84.420	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
83.908	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
83.341	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
82.745	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
81.088	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
81.053	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
79.857	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
79.703	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
79.200	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
78.098	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
77.380	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
77.073	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
76.682	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
76.648	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
76.475	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
76.169	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
75.687	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
74.825	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
74.711	Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?	Binary
74.535	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
74.384	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
73.200	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
73.091	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
72.063	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
70.565	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
70.101	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
69.992	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
68.755	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
68.513	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
68.205	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
65.929	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
65.313	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
64.223	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
62.934	Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?	Binary
60.994	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
60.833	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
60.392	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
60.229	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
60.197	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
59.356	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
59.240	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
58.705	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
57.259	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
57.257	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
56.432	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (May 9, 2024)	Binary
56.131	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
55.419	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
55.232	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
54.751	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
54.472	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
53.077	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
52.856	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
52.252	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
50.617	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
49.844	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
49.483	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
48.849	[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?	Binary
48.512	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
48.413	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
46.692	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
46.330	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
46.015	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
45.499	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
44.327	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
42.698	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
42.646	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
42.469	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
41.917	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
41.542	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
41.436	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
40.965	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
40.186	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
40.149	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
39.520	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
38.745	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
38.558	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
38.525	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.845	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
37.842	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
37.292	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
37.176	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
36.630	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
35.431	When will Starship next reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers?	Continuous
35.313	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
35.299	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
34.640	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
33.725	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
33.205	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
32.777	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
32.218	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
31.798	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
31.099	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
30.950	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
29.596	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
28.917	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
28.843	What will US airline passenger volume be for the week of Christmas through New Years Eve 2024, according to the TSA?	Continuous
28.256	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
28.167	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
27.541	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
26.622	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
25.930	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
24.987	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
24.771	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
24.571	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
23.851	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
23.834	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
23.122	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
23.010	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
22.938	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
22.116	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
22.038	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
21.872	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
21.259	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
21.028	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
20.922	Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?	Binary
19.012	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
18.880	Which party will the new Prime Minister of Iceland belong to after the 2024 parliamentary elections?	Multiple Choice
18.824	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
18.209	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
17.527	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
16.649	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
15.357	Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?	Binary
15.089	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
13.747	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
13.747	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
13.716	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
13.154	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
11.559	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
10.643	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
10.630	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
10.227	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
9.958	[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?	Binary
8.268	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
8.228	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
7.590	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
6.836	How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?	Continuous
6.679	Which country will win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?	Multiple Choice
6.556	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.465	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
5.193	What will be the fate of Starliner Calypso by September 30?	Multiple Choice
4.667	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
4.230	What will be the outcome of Boeing Starliner's launch planned for May 21, 2024?	Multiple Choice
3.968	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
3.844	Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?	Binary
3.425	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
2.943	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
1.529	What will be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year?	Multiple Choice
1.432	Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?	Binary
0.559	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
0.544	How many executive orders will Joe Biden sign after Election Day and before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
-	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
-	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
-0.217	Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?	Binary
-1.385	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-1.672	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-1.697	What will the US Supreme Court decide regarding Chevron deference in its 2023-2024 term?	Multiple Choice
-3.557	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-4.574	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-4.682	When will the sixth Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
-4.951	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.704	Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?	Binary
-5.863	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-7.119	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
-9.019	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
-9.033	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-9.278	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (November 15)	Continuous
-10.326	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
-10.781	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-15.195	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
-15.405	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-18.323	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-19.928	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-20.013	Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?	Binary
-21.152	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-22.105	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-24.077	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-24.852	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
-27.388	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-35.248	Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?	Binary
-44.205	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-45.698	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-46.076	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-49.022	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-50.985	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
-53.966	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-59.931	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
-65.199	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-69.351	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
-99.896	Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?	Binary
-99.976	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
-106.850	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-115.828	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-116.861	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-135.920	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
-178.517	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
-179.476	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary
-317.323	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary