Ale

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3811	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.900	Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?	Binary
92.852	Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
92.491	Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?	Binary
92.487	Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?	Binary
89.504	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → 500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?	Binary
88.361	Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?	Binary
88.219	Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?	Binary
88.219	Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?	Binary
88.216	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
86.830	Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?	Binary
85.449	LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025? (No) → NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?	Binary
85.436	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?	Binary
85.289	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?	Binary
83.308	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
83.300	Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
82.706	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
80.785	Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?	Binary
80.781	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?	Binary
80.100	DCCPA passes before 2025? (No) → Bitcoin up over 2024	Binary
76.414	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
74.763	Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?	Binary
73.208	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
72.932	Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?	Binary
72.931	In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?	Binary
72.929	Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?	Binary
72.928	Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?	Binary
72.928	Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?	Binary
72.928	Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?	Binary
72.596	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
71.115	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
70.474	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?	Binary
69.998	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
69.116	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
68.269	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Maryland)	Binary
66.607	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Texas)	Binary
66.524	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
66.507	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Jersey)	Binary
66.467	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
66.417	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?	Binary
66.357	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
66.345	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Missouri)	Binary
66.115	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Florida)	Binary
64.727	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
64.184	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
64.023	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
63.359	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
62.538	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
62.378	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Japan)	Binary
60.524	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
59.138	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Arizona)	Binary
57.172	2024 US election considered fraudulent? (No) → Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?	Binary
56.081	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
55.988	Fed Funds Rate Below 4%? (No) → S&P Goes Up In 2024?	Binary
55.523	What will be the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters?	Continuous
54.248	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
54.248	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
54.248	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
54.248	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
54.134	What will be the outcome of Donald Trump's New York "hush money" criminal trial?	Multiple Choice
51.170	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
50.845	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (China)	Binary
50.498	Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?	Binary
49.647	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
47.951	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
47.657	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
47.657	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
47.657	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
46.808	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
46.025	How Many States or Jurisdictions Will Decide the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Continuous
45.629	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
45.484	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Continuous
45.296	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Russia)	Binary
44.999	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
44.794	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
43.971	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
43.620	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
43.019	Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?	Binary
41.589	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
40.205	Who will be the new leader of PASOK after the elections of October 2024? \| Who will be the new PASOK leader after the October 2024 elections?	Multiple Choice
38.415	Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024? (No) → US Iran War Before 2025?	Binary
37.751	FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024? (No) → Magnitude of Spring/Summer 2024 COVID Peak?	Continuous
36.700	Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?	Binary
36.531	[Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly?	Binary
36.418	Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024?	Multiple Choice
34.092	New PHEIC in 2024? (Yes) → International Pandemic Treaty before 2025	Binary
33.190	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Sep-24)	Continuous
31.678	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
30.792	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
30.501	Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?	Binary
30.253	ICC Arrest Warrants for Israeli Leaders? (No) → Netanyahu PM Through 2024?	Binary
29.260	Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Georgia) (Yes) → Will the GOP win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
29.009	What will be the weekly rate of RSV-associated hospitalizations per 100,000 people for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
28.895	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
28.717	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Michigan)	Binary
28.134	(closed) Which country will win UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
28.129	How many personal bankruptcies will be filed in the United States in the third quarter of 2024?	Continuous
27.833	What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?	Continuous
27.664	Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024? (No) → Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
27.257	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
27.216	Countries confirm Clade I mpox? (United States) (Yes) → HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?	Binary
27.153	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Kamala Harris)	Continuous
27.123	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
25.999	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Donald Trump, November 1 2024)	Continuous
25.761	Netanyahu PM Through 2024? (Yes) → Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?	Binary
24.911	Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?	Binary
24.409	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
24.021	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Colorado)	Continuous
23.944	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
23.775	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
23.481	What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024?	Continuous
23.366	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
23.281	Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?	Binary
22.783	Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
22.743	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
21.683	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024)	Continuous
21.253	Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?	Binary
20.738	What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election?	Continuous
20.653	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
20.003	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
19.983	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Minnesota)	Continuous
19.594	Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024? (No) → 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
18.299	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Wisconsin)	Continuous
18.278	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Ohio)	Continuous
17.664	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
17.620	What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?	Binary
17.522	What will the number of votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election be?	Continuous
17.137	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
17.024	Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?	Binary
17.010	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Pennsylvania)	Continuous
17.010	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Mexico)	Continuous
17.007	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia?	Multiple Choice
16.893	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
16.865	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
16.840	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia)	Continuous
16.414	Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
16.203	What will be the weekly share (in percent) of emergency department visits for combined respiratory illnesses in the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
16.171	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Maine (statewide))	Continuous
16.104	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Georgia)	Continuous
15.686	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
15.531	Will former First Lady of Pakistan Bushra Bibi be arrested before January 1, 2025?	Binary
15.528	Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?	Binary
14.931	2024 US popular vote: 3rd party at least 5%? (No) → 2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?	Binary
14.364	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Delaware)	Continuous
14.193	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
14.116	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
13.241	Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
13.203	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
12.865	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (North Carolina)	Continuous
12.814	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Illinois)	Continuous
12.762	When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live?	Continuous
12.539	EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024? (No) → Level 2 or Greater Public Charging Stations (2025)	Continuous
12.511	Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?	Binary
12.511	Will any more of Trump's announced Cabinet picks drop out before January 1, 2025?	Binary
12.446	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Hampshire)	Continuous
12.101	Who will win the 2024 Senate election in Arizona?	Multiple Choice
11.746	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
11.742	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Oregon)	Continuous
10.856	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Washington (state))	Continuous
10.852	What is the probability that the weather in Warwick, RI will fall below 43 degrees F at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?	Binary
10.382	By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?	Continuous
9.979	Which jurisdiction will be the "Tipping Point" in the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
9.619	What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months? (Aug-24)	Continuous
9.603	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Michigan)	Continuous
9.153	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Alaska)	Continuous
9.025	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nebraska's 2nd congressional district)	Continuous
8.728	What will the closing price of CAC 40 be on December 31, 2024?	Continuous
8.693	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
8.239	Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?	Binary
8.190	Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?	Binary
7.390	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Iowa)	Continuous
7.371	What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?	Continuous
6.884	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New York)	Continuous
6.872	What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
6.103	How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?	Continuous
6.057	Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?	Binary
5.881	Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?	Binary
5.807	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
5.715	Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?	Binary
5.196	Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.918	When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?	Continuous
4.318	How many whooping cough cases will New Zealand report for weeks 51 and 52?	Continuous
4.099	How many times will the US Fed cut rates by 25 basis points this year?	Multiple Choice
4.015	What will be the weekly total number of confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks of the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
3.745	Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?	Binary
3.672	Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?	Binary
3.586	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
3.225	Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?	Binary
3.118	Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?	Binary
3.110	What percentage of the Sudan Humanitarian Response Plan 2024 budget will be funded by December 31, 2024?	Continuous
3.102	Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?	Binary
3.055	What will be the weekly total number of RSV hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
3.016	What will be CDC's highest assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public before January 1, 2025?	Multiple Choice
2.770	What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
2.752	What will be the best score on the WebArena benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
2.673	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Nevada)	Continuous
2.620	On December 31st, 2024, which organization will have the most intelligent publicly available AI model as judged by members of the Samotsvety forecasting group?	Multiple Choice
2.478	What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
2.462	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
2.440	What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan at the end of December 2024?	Continuous
2.429	What will be the US Dollar ($USD)-Israeli Shekel (₪ NIS) exchange rate on these dates? (December 30)	Continuous
2.278	ILA dockworkers' strike: Will monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ be equal or higher than the same month last year? (Jan 2025)	Binary
2.234	How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024?	Continuous
1.977	What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?	Continuous
1.951	Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?	Binary
1.889	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Milk recall due to H5N1)	Binary
1.889	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (US officials warn against drinking milk)	Binary
1.889	Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States? (Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk)	Binary
1.828	How many times will “artificial intelligence” be mentioned in White House Press Briefings in 2024?	Continuous
1.775	What will be the total number of refugees from Sudan in neighboring countries by the end of December 2024?	Continuous
1.749	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (5)	Binary
1.702	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (4)	Binary
1.702	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (6)	Binary
1.702	How many Starship launches will reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2024? (7 or more)	Binary
1.593	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
1.587	How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?	Multiple Choice
1.586	Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?	Binary
1.568	What will be the quarterly change for the employee Living Cost Index (LCI) of Australia, for the following quarters? (Q4 2024)	Continuous
1.526	Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?	Binary
1.486	Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?	Binary
1.461	Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?	Binary
1.373	Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?	Binary
1.313	What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?	Continuous
1.312	Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award?	Multiple Choice
1.297	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?	Binary
1.274	How many IM and GM account closures will chess.com report for 2024?	Continuous
1.260	Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
1.246	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?	Binary
1.242	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Civil Liability Laws)	Binary
1.242	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Mandatory Disclosure Requirements)	Binary
1.231	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (No Restriction)	Binary
1.231	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Approved Applications)	Binary
1.231	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Restricted Use for Specific Groups)	Binary
1.231	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Licensing for Use)	Binary
1.231	Will the US restrict deepfake technology use before 2025? (Total Ban)	Binary
1.228	Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?	Binary
1.180	Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?	Binary
1.165	Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?	Binary
1.165	Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?	Binary
1.137	Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024?	Binary
1.079	Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?	Binary
1.048	On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?	Multiple Choice
1.001	How many irregular immigrant entries to Spain will be reported for the year 2024 by the Spanish Ministry of Interior?	Continuous
0.941	If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?	Binary
0.855	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) for the listed dates? (Dec. 29, '24)	Continuous
0.656	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
0.538	What will be the lowest seed to reach the Championship of the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament?	Multiple Choice
0.304	Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?	Binary
0.178	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
0.039	US TikTok ban or forced sale? (Yes) → US-China AI Treaty? (2025)	Binary
-0.071	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks in the 2024-25 season? (January 4, 2025)	Continuous
-1.392	What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election?	Continuous
-1.939	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
-3.258	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
-4.511	2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? (Josh Shapiro) (No) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-6.107	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-6.148	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 9, 2024)	Continuous
-6.564	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-7.255	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
-7.430	How Many States Will Split the Senate-Presidential Ticket in the 2024 US Election?	Multiple Choice
-8.915	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-10.281	Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament?	Multiple Choice
-10.297	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Arizona)	Continuous
-11.921	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
-13.664	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-14.138	US Federal Min Wage Increase before 2025 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-15.554	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland?	Multiple Choice
-15.807	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
-16.881	Which party will win the 2024 US presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-17.453	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (New Jersey)	Continuous
-18.373	Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024? (Yes) → 2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-21.586	How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election?	Continuous
-25.463	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Texas)	Continuous
-25.495	Will Lebanon elect a President on January 9, 2025?	Binary
-28.704	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
-29.274	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?	Binary
-29.433	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
-30.238	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee (Joe Biden) (No) → GOP Control of US Senate in 2025	Binary
-31.575	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Florida)	Continuous
-31.920	Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?	Binary
-31.988	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-37.440	Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-40.104	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?	Binary
-45.916	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
-48.322	2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee? (Joe Biden) (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-49.389	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-49.879	Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024? (No) → Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?	Binary
-55.696	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
-57.087	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-57.529	Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-58.858	Will the Republican candidate win the 2024 US Senate election in the following states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-61.213	Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025? (Pakistan)	Binary
-63.872	US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access? (No) → NVIDIA's Market cap next 5 years (End of 2024)	Continuous
-68.438	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-71.428	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-73.697	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-75.601	Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?	Binary
-93.390	What will be the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the following weeks? (Mar. 23, 2024)	Continuous
-95.266	Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?	Binary
-98.784	AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024? (No) → Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)	Binary
-99.870	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-100.862	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-125.289	2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) (Yes) → BTC Worth Over 100k USD by 2025?	Binary
-125.933	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
-125.936	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?	Binary
-130.709	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (April 2024)	Continuous
-130.823	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
-215.342	2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote? (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-217.502	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-220.720	Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?	Binary
-221.195	Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?	Binary
-246.318	Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025? (No) → New PHEIC in 2024?	Binary
-356.527	Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024? (No) → Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?	Binary