Alexander230

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2024

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5387	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.952	Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?	Binary
88.178	Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?	Binary
84.989	Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?	Binary
83.063	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (OVX)	Continuous
81.748	Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?	Binary
80.803	Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?	Binary
78.805	Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?	Binary
78.360	Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?	Binary
77.674	Who will be elected President of Lithuania in 2024?	Multiple Choice
77.079	Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024? (No) → Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?	Binary
76.752	What will be the highest daily close price (in $USD) of the CBOE S&P 500 (VIX) and Crude Oil (OVX) Volatility Index between April 15 and June 1, 2024? (VIX)	Continuous
73.022	Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?	Binary
72.868	Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?	Binary
72.868	Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?	Binary
72.428	Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?	Binary
70.664	Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?	Binary
70.345	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?	Binary
69.832	Who will be #1 on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on June 28, 2024?	Multiple Choice
69.489	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (2. An anonymous process to raise risks)	Binary
69.489	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (3. A culture of open criticism)	Binary
69.489	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (4. No retaliation for public risk disclosure)	Binary
69.160	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Croatia)	Binary
68.383	Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?	Binary
66.130	Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?	Binary
65.921	Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?	Binary
65.065	Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?	Binary
64.525	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Switzerland)	Binary
64.329	Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?	Binary
63.688	Who will be elected President of Panama in 2024?	Multiple Choice
63.663	Will OpenAI publicly commit to the following "right to warn" principles before July 1, 2024? (1. No agreements prohibiting safety criticism)	Binary
62.687	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?	Binary
62.540	Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?	Binary
61.317	Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?	Binary
61.112	Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?	Binary
60.875	Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?	Binary
60.500	Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?	Binary
60.159	What will be the Xclaim market price for FTX accounts, as a % of account balance, on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
59.912	[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?	Binary
59.489	Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?	Binary
58.436	Which of these countries will qualify for the Grand Final in Eurovision 2024? (Finland)	Binary
56.533	Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?	Binary
56.470	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Chad?	Multiple Choice
56.348	What coalition will the Prime Minister of France belong to on July 30, 2024?	Multiple Choice
56.211	What percentage of the vote will Donald Trump win in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary?	Continuous
54.443	Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?	Binary
52.387	Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?	Binary
51.640	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Priti Patel)	Binary
51.639	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Mel Stride)	Binary
51.521	On October 1, 2024, what will be the status of Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?	Multiple Choice
51.175	Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?	Binary
51.157	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mauritania?	Multiple Choice
50.798	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?	Binary
50.207	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
49.215	Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?	Binary
47.950	Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before the listed dates? (July 1, 2024)	Binary
47.238	What will be the settle price for May 2024 Feeder Cattle futures contracts on April 15, 2024?	Continuous
47.098	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (James Cleverly)	Binary
46.787	What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024?	Continuous
43.622	Who will win the Tour de France 2024?	Multiple Choice
43.424	Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?	Binary
43.376	Who will become President of Iran in the first round of voting?	Multiple Choice
43.148	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on May 1, 2024?	Continuous
42.827	At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?	Binary
41.213	What will be the total finishing time for the 2024 Boston Marathon winners (male and female combined)?	Continuous
41.140	Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?	Binary
40.917	Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
40.890	Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?	Binary
40.322	Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
40.075	Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?	Binary
39.807	How many cases of severe invasive streptococcal infections (TSLS) will be reported in Japan on July 2?	Continuous
39.588	Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?	Binary
39.284	Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
39.015	[Short fuse] Who will win the 2024 Uruguayan Presidential election?	Multiple Choice
37.745	How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?	Multiple Choice
37.677	Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?	Binary
37.434	Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?	Binary
37.259	Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?	Binary
37.139	Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?	Binary
36.770	Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?	Binary
36.613	Who will be elected President of North Macedonia in 2024?	Multiple Choice
35.992	Will the Venezuelan electoral commission publish full results of the July 28 presidential election before August 12, 2024?	Binary
35.280	Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?	Binary
35.260	What will AfD's vote share be in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Continuous
35.244	Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.866	Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.637	How many seats will each alliance of parties win in the 2024 Indian general election? (National Democratic Alliance (NDA))	Continuous
33.482	Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?	Binary
33.443	Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?	Binary
32.444	What will be the polling average gap in the UK national parliament voting intention between the Labour and Conservative parties according to The Economist on June 27, 2024?	Continuous
32.302	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Picture)	Binary
32.302	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Director)	Binary
31.100	Who will win the 2024 World Chess Championship?	Multiple Choice
30.199	Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?	Binary
29.731	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (Herds Affected)	Continuous
29.564	What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?	Continuous
29.370	Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?	Binary
29.057	[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?	Binary
29.049	Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?	Binary
27.509	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Venezuela?	Multiple Choice
27.178	Which team will win the 2024 Indian Premier League final?	Multiple Choice
27.171	What will be the close price of Bitcoin (in $USD) on these dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
26.834	Who will win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?	Multiple Choice
26.139	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?	Binary
25.536	Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?	Binary
25.208	What percentage of the popular vote will be won by each candidate in the 2024 Russian Presidential Election? (Vladislav Davankov)	Continuous
24.810	Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?	Binary
24.803	Will the Pandemic Agreement be approved at the May 2024 World Health Assembly?	Binary
24.428	What will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be on September 18, 2024?	Continuous
24.253	Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?	Binary
24.140	Who will win Jeopardy! Masters 2024?	Multiple Choice
23.894	What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months? (August 2024)	Continuous
23.766	Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?	Binary
23.257	Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?	Binary
23.197	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
22.355	What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024? (States)	Continuous
22.329	On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?	Binary
21.291	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Oklahoma)	Binary
21.291	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (California)	Binary
21.291	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Virginia)	Binary
21.291	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Montana)	Binary
21.291	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
21.291	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Nevada)	Binary
21.260	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Ohio)	Binary
21.260	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (Washington)	Binary
21.260	Will the Democratic nominee for President in 2024 be on the ballot in the following states? (New Mexico)	Binary
21.153	Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?	Binary
20.948	Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?	Binary
20.651	Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?	Binary
20.480	Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?	Binary
20.354	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Algeria?	Multiple Choice
20.179	Which team will win the National League Central Division during the 2024 Major League Baseball season?	Multiple Choice
20.139	Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?	Binary
20.034	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1"N 35°36'11.5"E)	Binary
20.005	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4"N 35°30'27.1"E))	Binary
19.938	Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election?	Multiple Choice
19.905	[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?	Binary
19.872	Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?	Binary
19.772	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Glushkovo (51°20'43.9"N 34°38'54.9"E))	Binary
19.672	When will the Metaculus open source rewrite go live?	Continuous
19.287	[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?	Binary
19.181	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Tetkino (51°16'45.1"N 34°16'57.7"E))	Binary
18.547	Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?	Binary
18.519	Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Rwanda?	Multiple Choice
18.460	Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
18.082	What will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024?	Continuous
18.032	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Adapted Screenplay)	Binary
17.985	Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?	Binary
17.779	What will be the official vote percentage for the Ensemble! coalition in the first round of the French legislative elections on June 30, 2024, as reported by July 3, 2024?	Continuous
17.748	Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?	Binary
17.650	Will Ukrainian forces capture any of these locations before December 1, 2024? (Korenevo (51°24'37.7"N 34°54'02.2"E))	Binary
16.950	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?	Continuous
16.824	Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?	Binary
16.317	Which school will be #1 in the QS World University Rankings 2025, scheduled to be released on June 4, 2024?	Multiple Choice
16.263	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?	Binary
16.052	Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?	Binary
15.708	Who will win the leadership elections of the SYRIZA-PS party in 2024? \| Ποιος θα κερδίσει τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ-ΠΣ το 2024; (Olga Gerovasili)	Binary
15.609	Will India enact a law expanding the Minimum Support Price for crops before April 1, 2024?	Binary
15.606	Who will win the leadership elections of the SYRIZA-PS party in 2024? \| Ποιος θα κερδίσει τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ-ΠΣ το 2024; (Apostolos Gkletsos)	Binary
15.503	Who will win the leadership elections of the SYRIZA-PS party in 2024? \| Ποιος θα κερδίσει τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ-ΠΣ το 2024; (Nikolas Farantouris)	Binary
15.002	What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?	Continuous
14.986	What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled "The Sign" be three days after it airs?	Continuous
14.965	Gang Leader Fito in Custody by April 2024? (No) → Extended State of Emergency in Ecuador 2024?	Binary
14.915	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Renaissance)	Continuous
14.541	How many days will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?	Multiple Choice
14.465	What will be the US national average retail price of regular gasoline on Tuesday November 5, 2024, according to AAA?	Continuous
14.448	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Moldova?	Multiple Choice
14.437	How many TikTok followers will these US presidential candidates have on election day (Nov 5 2024)? (Donald Trump)	Continuous
14.386	How many directly elected seats will independents win in the National Assembly of Pakistan following the 2024 election?	Continuous
14.077	Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?	Binary
13.839	Who will win the leadership elections of the SYRIZA-PS party in 2024? \| Ποιος θα κερδίσει τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ-ΠΣ το 2024; (Pavlos Polakis)	Binary
13.767	When will the third Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff?	Continuous
13.482	What will be the highest closing price of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) stock any day after April 14, 2024, and before the 2024 United States presidential election?	Continuous
13.430	Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?	Binary
13.133	Will the result from Study 2 of "Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?	Binary
13.131	How many deliveries will Tesla report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
12.976	Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?	Binary
12.760	After the end of the DNC, what will be Kamala Harris's probability of winning the US 2024 presidential election, as measured and displayed by Metaculus?	Multiple Choice
12.416	What will be the total number (in thousands) of seasonally adjusted nonfarm job openings in the United States in February 2024?	Continuous
11.894	Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?	Binary
11.580	How many of these Cabinet ministers will fail to be re-elected to the House of Commons at the next UK election?	Continuous
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tim Walz)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gina Raimondo)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Jeff Jackson)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michael Bennet)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Mark Kelly)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gary Peters)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Amy Klobuchar)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Andy Beshear)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Roy Cooper)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Josh Shapiro)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Tammy Duckworth)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Joe Biden)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
11.521	Who will be the Democratic nominee for Vice President on Election Day 2024 (if Joe Biden is no longer the nominee for President)? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
11.434	What will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' net favorability ratings as reported by 538 be on these pre-election dates? (Kamala Harris, November 1 2024)	Continuous
9.928	Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?	Binary
9.846	For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?	Continuous
9.806	Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Thuringia state election?	Multiple Choice
9.670	What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?	Continuous
9.515	Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
9.482	Which NHL team will win the 2023-24 Stanley Cup?	Multiple Choice
9.414	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Namibia?	Multiple Choice
9.193	Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2024?	Multiple Choice
9.098	Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?	Binary
8.654	Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?	Binary
8.331	How many major hurricanes will occur in 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?	Multiple Choice
8.111	Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?	Binary
8.091	Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024?	Binary
7.605	How many U.S. federal executive department heads will the incoming administration announce between the election and December 16, 2024?	Multiple Choice
7.445	What vote percentage will Sadiq Khan win in the 2024 London mayoral election?	Continuous
7.221	On June 21, 2024, what will be the closing value of BSE SENSEX?	Continuous
7.176	What will be the price of Boeing stock (in USD) at market close on March 29, 2024?	Continuous
6.985	What will be the magnitude of the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and October 5, 2024?	Continuous
6.589	Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?	Binary
6.548	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Ghana?	Multiple Choice
6.463	Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?	Binary
6.437	Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
6.321	Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?	Binary
6.144	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Mozambique?	Multiple Choice
6.004	Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?	Binary
5.064	Which country will win the 2024 Eurovision song contest?	Multiple Choice
5.023	Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?	Binary
4.383	If a government is formed in South Africa before July 1, 2024, which parties will form the government?	Multiple Choice
4.354	Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?	Binary
4.342	Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?	Binary
3.465	What will be Donald Trump's margin of victory or defeat in these states in 2024? (Virginia)	Continuous
3.358	Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Brandenburg state election?	Multiple Choice
3.345	Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?	Binary
3.009	Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?	Binary
2.716	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?	Binary
2.137	Who will win the 2024 Men's Ballon d'Or award?	Multiple Choice
1.987	What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on November 8, 2024?	Continuous
1.654	Four days after the first Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate, how much will Harris's probability of winning change, according to the Metaculus Community?	Continuous
1.293	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by US Customs and Border Protection for the month of April 2024?	Continuous
1.162	What will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation be in the US in August 2024?	Multiple Choice
1.044	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 Portuguese legislative election? (AD (Aliança Democrática))	Continuous
0.984	When will the number of power outages in Texas fall below 7,500 customers?	Continuous
0.292	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Palau?	Multiple Choice
-	Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?	Binary
-	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?	Binary
-	Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?	Binary
-	[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?	Binary
-	Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?	Binary
-	At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?	Binary
-	By how much will the Fed cut rates at their September meeting?	Multiple Choice
-	Will Kamala Harris say "artificial intelligence" or "AI" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?	Binary
-2.002	What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?	Continuous
-2.036	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Somaliland?	Multiple Choice
-2.261	Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?	Binary
-2.474	How many deliveries will Rivian report in the second quarter of 2024?	Continuous
-2.868	Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?	Binary
-3.692	Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?	Binary
-3.749	Who will win the popular vote in the 2024 United States presidential election?	Multiple Choice
-4.995	Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Saxony state election?	Multiple Choice
-5.110	Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.472	How many probable dengue cases will be reported in Brazil in 2024 as of April 5, 2024?	Continuous
-6.482	Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-6.620	What will Reddit Inc.'s market capitalization be after its first day of trading, in USD?	Continuous
-7.241	Which of the Big Five Oscars will Poor Things win? (Best Actress)	Binary
-7.751	Who Will Win the 2024 FIDE Candidates tournament?	Multiple Choice
-8.083	Who will win the leadership elections of the SYRIZA-PS party in 2024? \| Ποιος θα κερδίσει τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ-ΠΣ το 2024; (Stefanos Kasselakis)	Binary
-8.813	Will the domestic box office opening of "Deadpool & Wolverine" be higher than that of "Deadpool" and "The Wolverine" combined?	Binary
-9.490	Who will win the leadership elections of the SYRIZA-PS party in 2024? \| Ποιος θα κερδίσει τις εσωκομματικές εκλογές του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ-ΠΣ το 2024; (Sokratis Famellos)	Binary
-10.631	On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?	Binary
-11.026	Who will win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?	Multiple Choice
-11.097	What will be the snow water equivalent of California's snowpack on March 31, 2024?	Continuous
-11.610	Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?	Binary
-13.008	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Robert Jenrick)	Binary
-13.115	Between June 1 and June 15, 2024, what will be the strongest geomagnetic storm observed on Earth?	Multiple Choice
-13.515	What will be the largest number of Chinese aircraft violating Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between May 15 and June 15, 2024?	Continuous
-13.991	[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?	Binary
-18.018	Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-18.817	Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?	Binary
-18.996	Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?	Binary
-19.473	How many major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in September 2024?	Multiple Choice
-22.051	Will leading Democratic lawmakers publicly call for Joe Biden to end his candidacy for the Democratic nomination before August 7, 2024?	Multiple Choice
-25.950	Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?	Binary
-26.202	Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (40th Amendment ("Care"))	Binary
-26.202	Result of Ireland's constitutional referendums on March 8, 2024? (39th Amendment ("The Family"))	Binary
-26.433	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on October 7, 2024?	Continuous
-27.941	Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-28.947	Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?	Binary
-30.875	How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the BJP win in the 2024 Indian election?	Continuous
-31.001	Who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
-35.374	How many seats will each party win in the 2024 French legislative election? (Rassemblement National)	Continuous
-36.081	Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?	Binary
-39.054	How disproportional will the 2024 Indian election be?	Continuous
-42.859	Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?	Binary
-45.094	Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?	Binary
-49.325	Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?	Binary
-50.855	Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?	Binary
-52.200	Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?	Binary
-52.620	Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?	Binary
-59.085	Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?	Binary
-63.275	Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?	Binary
-64.892	Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?	Binary
-69.787	Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?	Binary
-90.215	Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say "deepfake" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?	Binary
-106.484	Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Iceland?	Multiple Choice
-168.978	Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?	Binary
-309.200	Will at least one of Andrea Bocelli's concerts at Madison Square Garden on December 18 or 19, 2024 sell out?	Binary