Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5836	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.108	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	Continuous
118.284	Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?	Continuous
107.393	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	Continuous
95.906	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	Binary
95.741	Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?	Binary
93.587	When will the James Webb telescope be launched?	Continuous
93.342	Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?	Binary
92.418	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?	Continuous
91.536	Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021?	Binary
90.947	Short-fuse: Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted on any pending felony charges in connection to the 2020 Kenosha unrest before 2022?	Binary
89.863	Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?	Binary
89.399	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
88.652	Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?	Binary
88.314	What will Trump's approval rating be on 18-Jan-2021?	Continuous
87.382	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before inauguration day?	Binary
86.390	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	Continuous
85.952	When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Continuous
83.290	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in June 2021?	Continuous
82.741	[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
82.412	Will debris from the Long March 5B core stage cause injuries or property damage?	Binary
79.894	Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?	Binary
78.330	Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?	Binary
77.221	Will Donald Trump be outside of the United States on 2021-01-20?	Binary
76.969	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
76.886	How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?	Continuous
76.657	Will Joe Biden be officially inaugurated as President in-person outside the US capitol on January 20th, 2021?	Binary
75.980	[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?	Binary
75.864	Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?	Binary
75.695	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (January 2022)	Continuous
75.330	Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?	Binary
74.850	Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?	Binary
74.134	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump cease to be President before the 2021/01/20 inauguration?	Binary
73.040	For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
72.693	For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
70.806	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?	Binary
69.441	Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?	Binary
68.672	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
68.456	Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?	Binary
66.526	Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?	Binary
66.051	Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?	Binary
65.335	Will the subreddit /r/wallstreetbets be banned before Jan 1st, 2022?	Binary
64.899	Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?	Binary
64.513	For the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
64.102	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	Binary
63.711	What will be the total number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
63.189	Will Elizabeth Holmes be convicted on fraud charges related to Theranos before 2023?	Binary
62.784	Will restrictions on household mixing be in effect in England on 25 December 2021?	Binary
62.703	What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?	Continuous
62.206	Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?	Binary
62.092	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jan 14, 2022)	Continuous
61.873	What will be the total number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
59.001	Will more than 10,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
58.467	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	Continuous
58.175	In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?	Binary
57.375	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?	Continuous
56.543	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	Binary
54.728	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	Continuous
54.466	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?	Binary
54.112	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?	Continuous
53.729	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?	Continuous
53.079	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	Continuous
52.625	Will the US have more than 200,000 daily COVID-19 cases (7-day average) before January 1, 2022?	Binary
52.219	Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?	Binary
52.033	Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US in before 1 March 2021?	Binary
51.697	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	Continuous
51.463	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
50.657	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	Binary
50.446	Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?	Continuous
49.755	If a minimum corporate tax law is approved at the G20 Conference in July, what will be the minimum corporate tax level applied to all G20 countries?	Continuous
48.870	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	Binary
48.237	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
47.627	Will the US have more than 1000 daily COVID-19 deaths (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
47.511	What percentage of the US will be at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 on March 1, 2022?	Continuous
47.322	Will the peak reported daily deaths per capita from the COVID Delta variant wave be worse in the UK than the US?	Binary
46.927	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	Continuous
46.854	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on March 1st in the United States?	Continuous
46.848	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
46.541	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	Continuous
45.771	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?	Continuous
45.612	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
44.787	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
44.538	[Short fuse] How many new coronavirus cases will the United States report for the week ending August 14th?	Continuous
44.524	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous
44.091	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
43.875	Will Sweden have an extra election before 2022?	Binary
43.840	Will Erin O'Toole win the 2021 Canadian federal election?	Binary
43.705	Will vaccinated American citizens be allowed to enter Canada for discretionary travel by June 1st, 2021?	Binary
43.636	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
43.091	What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
42.876	Will federal criminal charges be levied against Donald Trump within a month of the end of his presidency?	Binary
42.847	Will Tesla become the world's most valuable publicly-traded company before 2023?	Binary
42.405	Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?	Binary
42.268	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
42.235	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?	Continuous
41.676	When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
41.323	What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?	Continuous
40.501	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?	Binary
39.591	What factor should the median 4-week-ahead COVIDhub Ensemble forecast made on 4 Jan(a forecast for the 24-30 Jan week) be multiplied by so that it equals the reported number of new US incident deaths?	Continuous
39.069	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	Binary
37.863	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	Continuous
37.636	Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
37.051	How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?	Continuous
36.408	Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?	Binary
34.710	Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?	Binary
34.542	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?	Continuous
34.456	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
33.973	By 23 November 2021 will the US Supreme Court overturn any part of President Biden's executive order requiring federal workers to be vaccinated against COVID-19?	Binary
33.785	When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?	Continuous
33.522	[Short-fuse] What will the % per-day growth rate advantage of Omicron relative to Delta be based on information available as of 23 December?	Continuous
33.441	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
32.992	What will be the cumulative number of people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US on 2021-05-31?	Continuous
32.549	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	Continuous
32.379	By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?	Binary
32.097	Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA before 2022?	Binary
31.869	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
31.722	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?	Continuous
29.948	Will more than 2,500 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
29.936	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
28.264	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
27.808	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
25.794	What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?	Continuous
25.579	[short-fuse] Will the power go out for >20% of NYC metro population for at least 24 hours before 2 July?	Binary
25.300	When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
24.118	Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?	Binary
23.753	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	Binary
23.516	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?	Continuous
23.502	By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?	Binary
23.117	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?	Continuous
22.834	Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?	Binary
22.510	When will the escaped Maryland Zebras be caught?	Continuous
22.007	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?	Continuous
21.616	By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?	Binary
21.526	Will NASA issue a second fully-funded award for its Human Landing System contract before 2022?	Binary
21.251	Will the United States boycott the 2022 Beijing Olympics?	Binary
20.725	When will the world pass 1 million daily COVID cases for the seven day moving average	Continuous
19.520	What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?	Continuous
19.454	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
18.187	Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on 31 December 2021?	Binary
17.567	Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?	Binary
16.977	Will the US have more than 6000 daily COVID-19 hospitalizations (7-day rolling average) before 1 January 2022?	Binary
16.688	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in June 2021?	Continuous
16.181	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
16.033	What will the total retail sales including food services be for June 2021?	Continuous
15.988	Will the US Supreme Court rule the vaccine and testing mandate for companies larger than 100 employees unconstitutional before the end of 2021?	Binary
15.587	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?	Continuous
15.392	What will the Womens winning 200m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
15.046	Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?	Binary
14.391	Will Biden pass an infrastructure package in 2021?	Binary
14.326	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	Continuous
14.324	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	Binary
14.178	By 1 November 2021 will the US Senate pass a bill extending the Child Tax Credit?	Binary
14.095	[Short-fuse] Before 16 December 2021, will the U.S. reimpose a Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Binary
14.071	What will be the % change in the Industrial Production Index for June 2021?	Continuous
14.069	When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?	Continuous
13.966	Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?	Binary
13.631	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?	Continuous
13.385	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	Continuous
13.090	[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?	Binary
12.605	Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?	Binary
12.211	What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?	Continuous
12.143	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
12.033	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
12.028	By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?	Binary
11.907	Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?	Binary
11.532	Will the U.S. Federal government declare a water shortage in the U.S. in 2021?	Binary
11.328	Will Silvio Berlusconi be elected to the Presidency of the Italian Republic in the next election?	Binary
10.518	What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
10.476	Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?	Binary
10.437	What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-02-28?	Continuous
10.340	Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?	Binary
8.760	Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?	Binary
8.205	What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
7.901	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	Continuous
7.395	When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?	Continuous
7.391	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	Continuous
6.713	Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?	Binary
6.474	What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?	Continuous
6.317	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	Continuous
6.270	When will the Taliban take Kabul?	Continuous
6.259	What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?	Continuous
6.112	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?	Binary
5.703	What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in June 2021?	Continuous
5.549	Will the Israeli Knesset pass a budget by November 30th?	Binary
4.478	How many US southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?	Continuous
4.308	What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?	Continuous
4.226	Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?	Binary
4.116	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
4.038	What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q3 2021?	Continuous
3.855	Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.756	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (with food and energy) for June 2021?	Continuous
3.674	How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?	Continuous
3.623	Will more than 10,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
3.403	Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?	Binary
3.190	Will more than 400 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?	Binary
3.010	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next leader of the Swedish Social Democratic Party?	Binary
2.423	Will Aubrey de Grey be terminated or resign from the SENS Research Foundation by 2022?	Binary
1.701	Will LDP continue to govern Japan after the 2021 general election?	Binary
1.668	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?	Binary
1.649	How many UC Berkeley undergraduates will test positive for covid this semester?	Continuous
1.582	What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?	Continuous
1.549	When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?	Continuous
1.051	For the month of June 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
0.993	On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "medium"?	Continuous
0.377	When will the US-EU border reopen?	Continuous
0.340	Will Sci-Hub be adding new articles again before the end of 2021?	Binary
0.210	Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?	Binary
-0.627	Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?	Binary
-1.045	Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries diplomatically boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-1.255	Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?	Binary
-2.021	Will the publicly-traded company GameStop (GME) reach a $420.69 stock price by the end of 2021?	Binary
-2.878	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2021)	Continuous
-5.633	Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?	Binary
-7.745	When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?	Continuous
-9.671	Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?	Binary
-10.287	What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?	Continuous
-10.491	How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?	Continuous
-10.744	Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?	Binary
-10.982	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	Continuous
-11.344	How many billions of dollars will wildfires in the US in 2021 cost?	Continuous
-12.815	[Short Fuse] Will SpaceX's SN10 Starship prototype vehicle land successfully?	Binary
-15.480	Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?	Binary
-15.867	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	Continuous
-15.977	What will Elon Musk's total net worth be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-17.722	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	Binary
-17.993	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-18.119	How much will the highest-paid dead celebrity earn in 2021, according to Forbes?	Continuous
-19.645	Will implementation of measures more severe than those in “Plan B” be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?	Binary
-22.151	What will be the number of new confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-22.411	Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?	Binary
-22.493	What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?	Continuous
-23.808	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?	Binary
-24.172	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	Continuous
-24.212	Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2021?	Binary
-25.277	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-26.293	[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?	Binary
-28.367	How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?	Continuous
-28.371	Will the Pentagon report on UAPs dispute secret technology or aliens as explanations?	Binary
-34.797	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	Continuous
-35.147	Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?	Binary
-36.537	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?	Continuous
-38.136	When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	Continuous
-39.336	What will be the number of new U.S. adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-01-24 and ending on 2021-01-30 (inclusive)?	Continuous
-40.410	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	Binary
-46.449	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	Binary
-47.150	Will more than 4,500 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired from Palestine at Israel in 2021?	Binary
-48.447	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?	Binary
-51.028	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	Binary
-54.105	Will the UK Conservative Party win the 2021 Batley and Spen by-election?	Binary
-57.650	Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?	Binary
-64.505	When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?	Continuous
-67.489	What will be the percent of B.1.1.7 among all S gene dropout SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing surveillance in the US between 2021-02-01 and 2021-02-15?	Continuous
-68.630	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?	Binary
-71.662	Short Fuse: How much will the winning bidder pay to go to space with Jeff Bezos?	Continuous
-76.814	How many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of July?	Continuous
-108.965	On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?	Continuous
-112.884	Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?	Binary
-143.330	When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?	Continuous
-150.379	What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?	Continuous
-150.909	On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?	Binary
-175.646	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jan-2022)	Continuous