Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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12.15k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
232.112	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
170.831	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
153.852	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
152.389	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
139.018	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
134.326	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
132.352	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
130.034	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
129.180	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
127.449	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
126.417	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
119.953	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
119.747	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
118.799	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
118.397	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
116.405	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
115.794	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
110.399	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
110.018	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
106.352	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
100.881	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
100.256	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
98.429	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
98.176	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
97.758	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
97.361	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
97.296	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Western Pacific Region, outside of China and Taiwan, by March 27?	Continuous
97.176	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
96.361	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
96.108	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
95.680	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
94.791	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
94.445	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
93.984	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
93.463	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
92.994	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
92.908	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
92.696	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
92.659	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
92.544	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
92.506	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
91.975	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
91.557	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
91.198	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
91.045	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
90.967	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
90.767	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
90.463	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
89.795	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
89.302	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
88.496	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
87.879	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
87.852	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
87.570	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
87.358	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
87.135	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
86.840	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
86.710	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
86.305	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
86.113	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
85.463	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
85.325	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
85.140	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
84.616	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
83.945	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
83.813	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
83.786	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in the entire Bay Area will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
83.404	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
83.013	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
81.684	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
81.606	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
81.280	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
81.183	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
80.913	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
80.704	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
80.616	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
80.209	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
80.138	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
80.009	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
79.707	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
79.033	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
78.070	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
77.899	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
77.681	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
77.192	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
76.912	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
76.651	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
75.945	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
75.816	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
75.552	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
75.343	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
74.123	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
74.039	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
73.773	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
71.182	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
70.977	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?	Continuous
70.837	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
70.414	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
69.936	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
69.695	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
69.274	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
69.234	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
68.331	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
68.323	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
68.228	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
68.051	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
67.814	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
67.809	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
66.887	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
66.834	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
66.565	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
65.773	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
65.597	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
65.415	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
65.160	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
65.085	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
64.922	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
64.679	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
63.674	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
63.533	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
63.192	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
63.151	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
62.901	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
62.395	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Beijing on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
62.004	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
61.940	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
61.897	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
61.513	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
61.134	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
60.896	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
60.427	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
59.827	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
59.753	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
59.742	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
59.720	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
59.542	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
58.932	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
58.768	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
58.621	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in Paris on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
58.540	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
58.478	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
56.840	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
56.757	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
56.193	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
55.734	Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?	Binary
55.327	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
54.871	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
53.730	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
53.669	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
52.819	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
52.292	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
52.046	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
51.666	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
51.659	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
51.315	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
51.304	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
50.725	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
50.569	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
50.310	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
50.152	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
50.080	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
49.517	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
49.446	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
49.331	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
48.736	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
47.945	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
47.848	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
47.768	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
47.604	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
46.806	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
46.219	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
45.868	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
45.540	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
45.063	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
44.722	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
44.632	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
43.714	How many active Airbnb listings will there be in London on the 1st of April of 2020?	Continuous
43.285	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
43.265	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
43.246	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
43.224	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
42.626	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
42.589	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
42.420	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
41.569	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
41.497	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
41.440	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
40.965	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
40.727	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
40.280	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
39.926	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
39.398	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
39.029	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
38.920	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
38.492	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
37.147	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
36.466	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
36.154	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
35.764	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
35.683	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO South-East Asia Region by March 27?	Continuous
35.260	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
35.152	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
33.473	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
33.415	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
32.928	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
32.882	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
32.163	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
31.969	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
30.332	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
30.200	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
29.569	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
28.713	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
28.544	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
28.272	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
28.120	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
27.421	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
27.343	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
26.634	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
26.213	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
26.209	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
25.719	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
24.216	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
23.603	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
23.465	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
21.927	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
21.608	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
21.247	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
19.805	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
19.529	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
19.201	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
19.056	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
18.884	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
18.538	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
18.274	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
18.155	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
17.795	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
17.696	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
16.954	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
16.903	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
16.459	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
15.968	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
15.962	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
15.736	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
15.728	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
15.567	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
14.942	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
14.904	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
14.732	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
14.348	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
14.238	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
13.774	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
13.636	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
13.386	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
12.830	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
12.737	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
12.694	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
12.272	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
12.042	Will Airbnb services be suspended in at least two major metropolitan areas outside of Mainland China due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
11.548	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
10.872	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
10.840	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
10.745	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
9.957	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
8.891	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.345	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
7.976	Will the University of Cambridge suspend in-person classes for its 2020 Easter term?	Binary
7.766	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
7.514	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
7.122	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
6.912	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
6.623	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
5.234	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
4.620	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
4.454	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
4.222	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
4.033	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
3.751	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
3.168	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
3.093	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
2.463	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
2.217	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
2.210	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
2.122	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
0.771	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
0.239	In second edition of the Animal Protection Index how many countries will be listed with B or A grades on the indicator for "Formal Recognition of Animal Sentience"?	Continuous
-	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
-1.008	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-4.816	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
-5.223	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-5.762	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-6.996	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
-8.630	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
-8.906	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-9.585	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-10.597	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-12.412	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
-12.684	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-13.492	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
-13.807	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-13.866	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-13.877	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-15.370	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
-15.664	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-21.212	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-22.471	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-25.250	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-25.728	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
-31.188	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-31.255	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-37.182	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-41.230	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-42.034	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-43.661	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
-54.710	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
-55.790	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-57.653	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-58.163	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-59.683	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?	Continuous
-62.647	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-65.717	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
-67.941	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-72.216	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-75.944	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-76.391	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-76.973	Will the Doomsday clock advance closer to Midnight?	Binary
-78.814	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-80.623	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-84.728	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-87.722	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-91.157	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
-97.354	Will the S&P 500 Index end 2020 higher?	Binary
-101.633	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-105.668	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-110.766	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-118.325	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-132.247	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-133.942	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-145.131	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-172.599	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-194.556	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-199.960	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-220.680	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-314.008	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
-356.977	Will Iran deploy no Zafar communications satellite by 2021?	Binary