traviswfisher

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6169	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
171.944	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
157.383	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
110.339	[closed] How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be estimated to occur before 2021?	Continuous
110.029	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
98.132	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
96.519	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
96.467	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
96.266	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
95.998	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
95.229	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
94.590	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
94.450	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
94.416	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
93.862	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
92.573	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
91.639	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
90.889	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
90.320	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
90.185	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
89.489	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
88.915	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
87.066	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
86.556	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
86.268	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
85.604	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
85.116	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
84.588	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
83.590	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
83.499	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
83.483	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
80.870	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
80.841	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
79.580	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
77.937	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
76.566	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
75.671	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
75.054	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
75.026	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
74.276	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
74.211	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
73.795	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
73.298	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
73.198	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
72.994	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
72.629	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
71.766	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
70.103	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
68.733	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
67.217	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
67.133	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
65.441	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
63.609	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
63.243	Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?	Binary
62.922	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
62.868	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
61.726	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
59.757	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
58.883	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
58.702	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
58.700	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
57.601	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
55.399	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
54.141	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
53.990	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
53.694	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
53.652	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Thailand by May 1?	Binary
52.694	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
51.660	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
50.334	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
49.041	How many cumulative confirmed cases of coronavirus in San Francisco will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on April 1st, 2020?	Continuous
49.040	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
48.871	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
48.713	Will Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of an early spring come true in 2020?	Binary
48.047	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
47.571	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
46.520	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
46.004	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
45.069	How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
45.061	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
44.973	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
44.399	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
44.356	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
44.210	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
44.168	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
43.316	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
42.815	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
42.009	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
41.466	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
41.162	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
39.393	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
38.605	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
37.518	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
36.974	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
36.600	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
36.520	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
34.765	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on February 3rd?	Continuous
34.680	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
34.611	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
34.459	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
34.326	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
33.149	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
32.333	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
32.202	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
31.803	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
31.781	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
31.763	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
31.598	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
31.340	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
30.577	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
30.472	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
29.978	Will the PredictIt prediction market outperform Fivethirtyeight's forecasts for the 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries?	Binary
29.356	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkin's CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
28.660	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
28.432	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
27.896	For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?	Continuous
27.540	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
26.874	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
25.938	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
25.067	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
24.924	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
24.522	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
24.432	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
23.797	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
23.766	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
23.651	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
23.619	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
22.798	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
22.639	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
22.470	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
22.401	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
22.282	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
22.079	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
22.075	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
21.972	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
21.900	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
21.891	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
21.816	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
20.395	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
19.019	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
18.913	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
18.592	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
18.582	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
18.336	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
17.115	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
16.007	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
15.281	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
15.229	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
14.582	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.548	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
14.537	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
14.460	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
14.410	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
13.754	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
12.932	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
12.659	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
12.315	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
12.211	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
11.595	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
11.016	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
10.725	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
10.463	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
10.093	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
9.610	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
8.936	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
8.473	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
8.114	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
7.749	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
7.690	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
7.453	When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?	Continuous
7.112	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
6.994	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
6.566	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
6.458	If the U.S. sees at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases before November 2020, will Trump be reelected president in 2020?	Binary
6.015	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
5.921	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
5.855	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
5.767	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
5.000	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
4.777	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
4.716	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?	Continuous
4.353	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
4.302	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
4.092	Will Brexit (finally) happen in 2020?	Binary
3.862	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
2.589	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
2.575	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.465	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
2.393	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
1.789	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
1.677	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.535	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
1.481	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.898	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
0.868	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.538	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
0.433	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
0.306	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.017	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
-0.319	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-0.480	[Short fuse] Will Michael Bloomberg drop out before the March 13th?	Binary
-0.855	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-1.160	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-2.243	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-4.011	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-8.531	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-9.826	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-9.919	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-16.373	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-16.579	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-19.630	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-26.885	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-29.151	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-34.237	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-39.589	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-41.229	How many COVID-2019 cases in the United Kingdom will be confirmed on March the 27th?	Continuous
-43.672	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-44.155	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-44.889	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-48.916	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-52.539	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-54.047	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-54.510	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-62.405	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
-62.568	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-66.990	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-76.072	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
-81.980	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
-111.314	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-121.514	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-130.913	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-135.431	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-139.748	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-145.940	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-181.024	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-209.286	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary