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Questions

Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts

1 Followers

13 Questions

This question is also part of main Metaculus.

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Miles Brundage20%

Will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive in 2025?

Will a large-scale cyberattack in which Generative AI plays an important causal role occur by December 31, 2025?

Will there be a "GPT-5 level" model, as judged by community consensus, released by December 31, 2025?

Will neurosymbolic AI see a substantial increase in visibility, research activity, and adoption in AI development in 2025?

Will Sora continue to have trouble with physics in 2025?

Will the valuations for major AI companies start to fall in 2025?

Will companies' adoption to production-grade AI systems scaled out in the real-world be tentative?

Will less than 10% of the global workforce be replaced by AI in 2025?

Will AI copyright lawsuits continue in 2025?