Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.

Question

Will any model achieve a 40%+ performance on Humanity’s Last Exam by September 1, 2025?

Total Forecasters7
Community Prediction
20%
(15% - 33%)

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50%
community: 20%
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 25, 2025
Closes:Aug 15, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Sep 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 15, 2025