Contributed by the Harvard's AI Safety Student Team community.
Question
In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?
Total Forecasters6
Community Prediction
Jul 2031
(24 Mar 2028 - May 2041)
Make a Prediction
CDF
This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 24 Mar 2028 | — |
| median | Jul 2031 | — |
| upper 75% | May 2041 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Feb 2070 | 10.4% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2025
Closed:Feb 17, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 17, 2025
Authors:
Opened:Feb 9, 2025
Closed:Feb 17, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 17, 2025